Red Flag Warning 4, NWS North Platte, NE

Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Thomas County, NE

465 
WWUS83 KLBF 050002
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES...

NEZ204-206-208-210-219-050115-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100505T0000Z/
EASTERN PANHANDLE/CRESCENT LAKE NWR-
SANDHILLS/VALENTINE NWR/NEBRASKA NATIONAL FOREST/
SAMUEL R MCKELVIE NATIONAL FOREST-
NIOBRARA VALLEY/FORT NIOBRARA NWR-FRENCHMAN BASIN-LOESS PLAINS-
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2010 /602 PM MDT TUE MAY 4 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING. 

THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES:
IN NEBRASKA...204...206...208...210...219

TEMPERATURES WERE BEGINNING TO FALL THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE INCREASING. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS CANCELLED.

$$

POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...
U/A ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS BECOMING
MUCH MORE ZONAL THAN PAST FEW DAYS WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF RATHERN STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF CANADIAN ROCKIES. DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR UPSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE HINTING AT NEXT FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS MID TO
LATTER WEEK. AT SFC...COLD FRONT HAS ACCELERATED OUT OF SOUTHERN MT
ROCKIES LAST EVENING AND IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BLACK HILLS AT
08Z. WIND AND FIRE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY AND ALREADY SOME
STRONG GUSTS HAVE BEEN ASSOC WITH FROPA...NEAR THE BEST PRESSURE
COUPLET ACROSS THE EASTERN MT AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE
WYOMING WHERE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS. KCYS RADAR WOULD
SUGGEST A DECENT INVERSION IS PRESENT WITH DUCTED WAVE PATTERN...AND
MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR ARRIVAL OF FRONT TO MIX THINGS UP TO GET BETTER
WIND GUSTS IN WESTERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SHOWING HIGH WIND EVENT
ACROSS WESTERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ALONG WITH ASSOC GUIDANCE BUT BUFKIT DOES SUGGEST
MIXING WILL APPROACH 650MB AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING NEAR THE
TOP OF MIXED LAYER AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC SHOULD ALLOW
GUST POTENTIAL TO REACH UP NEAR 60 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61
AND HAVE POSTED THE WARNING. ALREADY DRY AIR SEEN IN LEE OF WYOMING
ROCKIES AND THIS PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING VERY DRY CONDTIONS
TO WESTERN CWA. WITH CALLS AREA LAND MANAGERS...HAVE CONFIDENCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET. THIS WILL STILL BE
ACCOMPLISHED WITH FASTER FROPA THAN WAS EXPECTED THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH TEMPS IN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN CWA...LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S TO THE SOUTH...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF THE
WARNING AREA TO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS. LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH BOUNDARY WILL BE FLOATING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA
DURING PEAK HEATING...BELIEVE EXTREMELY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT
AREAL COVERAGE AND KEPT ISO T MENTION IN EXTREME EASTERN CWA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. FRONT SHOULD BE FORCED WELL INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE PAC NW AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
ORCANIZE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL BE MORE TOLERABLE
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD SEE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SEEM TO STILL HAVE SOME SPREAD ON SOLN ON WESTERN SYSTEM AS
IT PULLS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSES TO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FASTEST...THE GEM THE MOST AMPLIFIED. AS SUCH HAVE NOT
MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
THURSDAY NIGHT A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST CWA AS COLD
AIR IS DRUG INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...WILL SPREAD GUSTY WINDS TO THE LBF AND VTN TERMINALS
LATER TODAY. WESTERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AT
BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS
AOA 10000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATER TODAY FOR ALL
FIRE ZONES...MINUS NEZ209 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEZ208 AND NEZ206.
THIS PRODUCT WILL RUN FROM NOON-6 PM MDT OR 1 PM CDT THROUGH 7 PM
CDT.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOWL LATER TODAY AS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR
RED FLAG CONDS TAKES SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE 20S ATTM AND THESE
SHOULD LOWER FURTHER LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LWR 70S EXPECTED...MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. CALLS TO LAND
MANAGERS YESTERDAY...REVEALED ONLY MINIMAL GREEN UP OF GRASSES IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...SO PLENTY OF 1 HR FUELS AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT
/NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208-210-219.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005-006-008-024>026-036-037-
058-059.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ004-022-023-035-056-057-094.

&&

13/CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
520 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-041030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
520 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010 /420 AM MDT MON MAY 3 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
COMBINING THE WIND WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...THE RISK OF
FIRE WILL INCREASE ON THE PRAIRIES AND RANGE LANDS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SINCE NEW GRASS IS EMERGING...THE FIRE DANGER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH DRY
GRASS LEFT FROM WINTER THAT A FIRE COULD SPREAD IF IT STARTED. THE
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARD WITH THE FRONT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
MOISTURE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS