High Wind Watch 1, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE RUNS OF THE
GFS AT 00Z AND LATER HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP WINDS SPEEDS WITH
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING HELPING TO TRANSFER MOMENTUM DOWNWARD. DEEP
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA AND A STRONG
MIDLEVEL JET MAXIMA CROSSING NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED PRODUCE A HIGH WIND SITUATION FROM WY THROUGH THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A 75:25 BLEND OF THE FASTER MAV GUIDANCE AND
SLOWER MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND SPEEDS AND 5 MPH WAS ADDED
TO THE RESULTS OF THE GUST TOOL. THIS PRODUCED 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 60 MPH
ACROSS GARDEN COUNTY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FARTHER EAST. BLENDED GFS AND NAM INDICATED NEAR 15
PERCENT HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
PLACE FOR THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS. FORECASTERS TONIGHT CAN
TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT THE DATA AND DECIDE IF THE GFS HAS OVERSHOT
THE EXPECTED WINDS AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE ALSO SPED UP THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY SO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 60S TO THE NORTH. THE NAM ALSO
SUGGESTED SOME MOISTURE POOLING AND INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83.

THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BLASTING THE COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY WHICH IS FCST BY ALL SOLNS TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA BRUSHING NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN...AND SNOW AT TIMES. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND THE NAM HAS THE FRONT ACROSS CNTL OKLAHOMA. THE BULK OF
THE PCPN IS CLEARLY EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE
NAM PAINTING WRN NEB WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.

ANOTHER STRONG BATCH OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PRODUCING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BOTH
MORNINGS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ANOTHER STRONG LONG WAVE TROF
BUILDING SHARPLY THROUGH THE WRN U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE BASIS FOR A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTL NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS. SFC TROUGH AND WESTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KTS
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SCT-BKN070 CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SCT120 BKN200 INTO THIS EVENING...CLEARING TO
SCT250 OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. COLD FRONT TO PASS KVTN NEAR 15Z TUES
AND KLBF NEAR 18Z. FOR KVTN WEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL INCREASE
AFT 17Z TO 25KTS SUSTAINED W/GUSTS TO 40 KTS AFT 20Z. WINDS AT KLBF
LIGHTER ALTHOUGH WNW WINDS SUSTAINED INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS BY 20Z. WINDS TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z WITH THE
APPROACH OF SUNSET.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR NEZ023-024-035-036-057-058-094.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ204-206.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ005-006-008-
025-026-037-059.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ004-022-056.

&&

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
520 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-041030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
520 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010 /420 AM MDT MON MAY 3 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ON TUESDAY...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
COMBINING THE WIND WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...THE RISK OF
FIRE WILL INCREASE ON THE PRAIRIES AND RANGE LANDS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. SINCE NEW GRASS IS EMERGING...THE FIRE DANGER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH DRY
GRASS LEFT FROM WINTER THAT A FIRE COULD SPREAD IF IT STARTED. THE
OTHER POSSIBLE HAZARD WITH THE FRONT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
MOISTURE MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS