Small Craft Advisory 73, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
924 PM AST THU NOV 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PR THIS EVENING AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE USVI OVR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN.
LONG PERIOD NNE SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE ATLC COASTLINE OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CDFNT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD CLEAR MAINLAND PR BY 06Z TONIGHT. DEEPENING LOW-LVL
NRLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHALLOW CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SHRA ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND OR
MOVE OVR THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE EAST AFTER 06Z. DESPITE THE
INTRUSION OF MID-LVL DRY AIR...SHOWERS REMAIN VERY PRECIP
EFFICIENT DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOTION AND ABUNDANCE OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE WITH RADAR ESTIMATING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES JUST OFF THE COAST OF MANATI. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THE RADAR
BEFORE SENDING PRODUCTS TO SEE IF WE CAN TRIM MORE AREAS FROM THE
FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS OVR THE NORTH COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST IN NRLY FLOW. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SUN NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A
REFRESHINGLY COOL AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN PR TAF SITES AND
TIST. LATEST 00Z JSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY NLY WIND FLOW
AT 5 TO 15 KTS BTWN SFC TO 5 KFT...BECOMING SWLY ABOVE 7 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...LEFTOVER SWELLS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK STILL LINGER
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AND WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OVR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS AS ANOTHER
BATCH OF MUCH LARGER LONG PERIOD SWELLS BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO OUR
ATLC WATERS EARLY SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND IN SWELL HEIGHT AND SWELL PERIOD BUT DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS ARE A CERTAINTY OVER THE WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED A BIT AS LOW PRES TO THE NORTH HAS "ONLY" GENERATED
STORM FORCE WINDS AND WINDS OF HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE TYPICALLY
REQUIRED FOR COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS IN THIS AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...0.11 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN RECORDED SO FAR TODAY AT
THE LMM INTL ARPT BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 80.36 INCHES. ANOTHER
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  83  73  83 /  70  10  20  20
STT  74  84  74  84 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM AST FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
     CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-SAN JUAN
     AND VICINITY-VIEQUES.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON AST
     SUNDAY FOR CULEBRA.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM AST FRIDAY FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

11/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 AM AST THU NOV 11 2010

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-121030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
619 AM AST THU NOV 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND COASTLINES AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RIP CURRENTS.
WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON THE COASTLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO BOATS...PIERS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FRIDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY
ALSO BE REQUIRED FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF THREE
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-121030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
619 AM AST THU NOV 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND COASTLINES AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RIP CURRENTS.
WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON THE COASTLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO BOATS...PIERS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FRIDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY
ALSO BE REQUIRED FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF THREE
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.