Small Craft Advisory 69, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

.UPDATE...RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PONCE AND VICINITY...WHERE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED 3 TO 5
INCHES SOME AREAS OF PONCE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE TOMAS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BLENDED TPW SHOWED EXTREMELY HIGH
PWAT VALUES (GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE TOMAS NEAR 73 WEST THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS APPROACHING MOISTURE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FLYING AREA DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
OF THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR IN LOW CIG/VSBY
AT LEAST TIL 06/04Z ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TJPS AND TJSJ. THEREAFTER
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE  EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST
06/14Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06/16Z THROUGH 06/23Z IN SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE
THE FLYING AREA. MTN TOP OBSCR EXPECTED ALONG PARTS OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM AST FRI NOV 5 2010/

SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO HURRICANE TOMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE TOMAS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...PULLING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BREEZY AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT AND THE
WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AS HURRICANE TOMAS
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
LATEST RUN OF GFS...BUT MAJORITY OF LATEST GUIDANCE TRACKS TAKE
TOMAS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED RELATIVE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND AS A RESULT OPTED TO KEEP INHERITED FORECAST LARGELY IN
TACK.

MARINE...INCREASING SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES NEXT WEEK AS SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
TOMAS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

AVIATION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT OCNL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLYING AREA DURG THE
AFTN. SOME OF THE QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR IN
LOW CIG/VSBY AT LEAST TIL 06/00Z. THEREAFTER PREVAILING VFR CONDS
CAN BE  EXPECTED TIL AT LEAST 06/02Z...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INTMT
MVFR  OVERNIGHT THROUGH 06/12Z IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL ALONG PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  74  84 /  40  60  60  80
STT  78  86  76  84 /  50  50  70  80

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710-715-722-725-732-735-741.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710-715-722-725-732-735.

&&

72/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-061015-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
605 AM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS MAY
PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS
NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY HAVE
WIDESPREAD AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD GENERATE FLOODING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-061015-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
605 AM AST FRI NOV 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
LOCALIZED GUT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY.