Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
644 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS
A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE TUTT. THIS WAVE AND
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THESE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND PART OF TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RATHER
QUICK CELL MOTION SHOULD KEEP MOST FLOODING LOCALIZED...BUT
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF ECHOES HAS ALREADY BEEN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOCAL AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
PROBABLY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES...MVFR
AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR TODAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST PART OF TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY ROUGH
AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO
SJUCWFSJU FOR THE LATEST FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.SITE SUPPORT...THE XXI CENTRAL AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN SPORT
GAMES MAYAGUEZ 2010 KICK OFF IN MAYAGUEZ ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE OPENING CEREMONY AT 300 PM AST. THE GAMES WILL THEN RUN
THROUGH SUNDAY AUGUST 1. WFO SAN JUAN WILL BE PROVIDING ON SITE
AND IN OFFICE SUPPORT TO THE PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY (PREMA) AND OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES THROUGH THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  89  78 /  70  40  60  60
STT  89  80  89  79 /  70  40  60  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...715...722...725 AND 732.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...715...722...725 AND 732.
&&

BCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
702 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-171115-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
702 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE. RIVERS AND STREAM
ALONG THE NORTH COAST WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AT LEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-171115-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
702 AM AST FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
HIGH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERV ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.