Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS JSJ

822 
WGCA72 TJSJ 270354
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1154 PM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

PRC017-039-091-270414-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-100627T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-
1154 PM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR MANATI...BARCELONETA AND
CIALES MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 1147 PM AST...U.S.G.S. RIVER GAGES INDICATED THAT THE LEVELS OF 
THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI AT MANATI WERE AT 31.42 FEET AND STILL 
RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. THE RIVER SHOULD CREST IN THE NEXT 
HOUR OR SO...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 530 
AM AST. FOR THIS REASON...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE BUT WAS REPLACED BY A FLOOD WARNING FOR MANATI AND 
BARCELONETA...BUT IN PARTICULAR FOR PEOPLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DE 
MANATI.

HOWEVER...AT CIALES THE RIVER LEVELS HAD FALLEN TO WELL BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND NO 
FURTHER PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 1849 6657 1850 6651 1834 6644 1833 6649

$$

BCS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY DRIFTING AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FROM
EAST TO WEST WILL PASS ABOUT 220 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON
SUNDAY. A NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SLIDE WEST AS ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW LOOPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AND MOVES TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTERRUPTED BY A
WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-
LATITUDE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
PUERTO RICO WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT HAS BEEN GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE FIRST FOUR DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER INTENSE INSOLATION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED WITH COPIOUS LIGHTING. HEAVY RAINS COVERED MUCH OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AS OF 3 PM THE NORTH AND SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS
AND THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN WERE DRY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWEPT INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
SLOWED AND DEFORMED THE TROPICAL WAVE ON ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE EAST. IN ADDITION LOW PRESSURE STILL APPEARS TO BE
ATTEMPTING TO FORM AT THE APEX OF THIS WAVE NEAR 21 NORTH 61 WEST.
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE TENTATIVE CYCLOGENESIS THE WAVE HAS
FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO PROGRESS INTO THE AREA. AT THE PRESENT TIME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM 16 NORTH 68
WEST TO 18 NORTH 62 WEST AND WAS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS IT MAY BE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONVERGING INTO THE FORMING LOW. THE GFS
SHOWS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT ALSO SHOWS SOME SPLITTING AROUND THE ISLAND MAKING
FORECASTS OF RAIN QUANTITIES DIFFICULT. EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
TOMORROW AND SOME SHIFT IN THE RAIN PATTERN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN IN A
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE MOVES OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
VIGOROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS AND CONVERGENCE THERE. OTHERWISE THE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN
FOR RAIN SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL AT LEAST 26/23Z ACROSS TJMZ...TIST AND TISX IN TSRA.
ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES IN A QUICK PASSING SHRA OR VCSH. TJSJ
26/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...IN THE ATLANTIC...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IN THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO INCREASING
GRADIENTS...OUTER CARIBBEAN WATERS MAY SEE SEAS CLOSE TO 7 FEET BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  78  91 /  30  60  40  30
STT  80  87  78  88 /  50  50  40  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

72/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-271030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
616 AM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-271030-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
616 AM AST SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WILL RESULT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME URBAN AND GUT FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.