Flash Flood Warning 121, NWS JSJ

815 
WGCA72 TJSJ 081046
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
646 AM AST FRI OCT 8 2010

PRC011-083-097-131-081215-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0121.000000T0000Z-101008T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-
646 AM AST FRI OCT 8 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM AST FOR
ANASCO...MAYAGUEZ...LAS MARIAS AND SAN SEBASTIAN MUNICIPALITIES...

FOR THE RIO GRANDE DE ANASCO NEAR SAN SEBASTIAN - SEBP4
     FLOOD STAGE - 11 FEET.
     AT 640 AM AST...THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN   
     TO...18.52 FEET. MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST         
     ACROSS SOME AREAS OF SAN SEBASTIAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS 
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW 
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1830 6721 1831 6705 1829 6699 1822 6699
      1822 6717

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1108 PM AST THU OCT 7 2010

.UPDATE...THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO
TROPICAL STORM OTTO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. EARLY IN TH EVENING
SHOWERS MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE WESTERN ONE THIRD. THE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE USVI THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODIC MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WITH IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING
+SHRA OR +TSRA. SW LLVL WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED TO BECOME
S AT 15 TO 25 KTS BY 08/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST THU OCT 7 2010/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM OTTO CONTINUES TO MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATED TOWARDS THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS....MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC STARTING SUNDAY. A MORE TYPICAL WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT RAINFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES...HAS BEEN
AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST
12 HOURS TO 18 HOURS. THIS PERSISTENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN PRODUCING
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING...RIVERS OUT OF ITS BANKS..AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM OTTO...IS
BRINGING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...IN A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM AST FRIDAY.

OTTO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY...CREATING A MORE SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALSO...A DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND TO PRODUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WET SCENARIO.

AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT...IN PASSING SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA.

MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TROPICAL STORM
OTTO CONTINUES TO LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...MOST RIVERS IN PUERTO RICO CONTINUES VERY HIGH..WITH
RIO CIBUCO...RIO LA PLATA...RIO GRANDE DE MANATI...RIO
GUANAJIBO...AND RIO CULEBRINAS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECTS ALONG THIS RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...AND
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  77  89  77 /  70  60  60  40
STT  88  79  89  79 /  80  80  80  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
     CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN...DELAYED
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
652 AM AST THU OCT 7 2010

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-081100-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
652 AM AST THU OCT 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SUB TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD WHICH IS
HOLDING A WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE ISLAND BRINGING WIDESPREAD INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAINS
AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEAVY RAINS IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION FROM OTTO WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
MAJOR FLOODING ARE WELCOME.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-081100-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
652 AM AST THU OCT 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SUB TROPICAL STORM OTTO IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD WHICH IS
HOLDING A WIDE BAND OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STREAM ACROSS THE ISLANDS BRINGING WIDESPREAD INTERMITTENT HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HEAVY RAINS IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION FROM OTTO WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOME HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...REPORTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
MAJOR FLOODING ARE WELCOME.