Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN GENERAL...WE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE. THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WHICH WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVER IN GETTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING. WITH THE MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS AND TENDED TO PREFER THE
NAM FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ALSO KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THE RIDGE MAY BE DOMINANT ENOUGH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WAS A LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH EXTENDS FROM ELLIOT TO
CLAY COUNTY. THERE WAS ALSO A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING TO THE EAST. THE AIR IS STILL
UNSTABLE BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE AND SO CAN EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORM WILL LIKELY BE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING...BUT POTENTIALLY THEY
COULD BE STRONGER AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
TEMPO IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF
THE FOG WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS WHERE VFR WITH
SOME MVFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR DAWN...SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME STORMS
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

ADDITIONALLY...ANY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OR STORMS THAT PASS
REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY MEASURED HEAVY RAINFALL OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR...AS WELL AS FLOODING OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
TODAY.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

KYZ109-110-112-113-120-122015-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-PIKE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
331 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 415
PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

   SOUTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN...
   CENTRAL FLOYD...
   WEST CENTRAL PIKE...
   EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BREATHITT AND
   NORTHEASTERN KNOTT.

AT 331 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WALDO...OR 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRESTONSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...HIPPO AROUND
340 PM EDT...EASTERN AROUND 345 PM EDT...LANGLEY AROUND 350 PM EDT...
HUNTER AROUND 355 PM EDT...AND BLUE MOON AROUND 400 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

GREIF

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