Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
228 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

CURRENT RADAR HAS ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA/TSRA SURGING NE TOWARD ERN KY.
FIRST SHRA ALREADY MOVING INTO WAYNE CO WITH STRONGER STORMS TO OUR
SW. SFC BNDRY RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE STATE WILL BECOME THE FOCAL
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS REMAINING
IN THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWFA. BUFR SKEWT INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS FROM THE TN BORDER
TO AROUND THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. THE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WITH THE SETTING SUN AND EXPECT MOST PCPN TO DIMINISH AS
WELL. SHORT TERM MODELS ALL INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM THE RED RIVER... THRU WRN TN TO ERN KY OVER THE NEXT 48 HR.
DETAILS BECOME A BIT HAZY BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS WITH A SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND PCPN AS THE LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP THE FNTL BNDRY AND
BRINGS LIKELY PCPN TO THE AREA FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS WHICH LOWERED TEMPS FOR SUN DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
PCPN IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED

NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED FOR DAYS 4-7 OF THE LATEST FORECAST. PICKED
UP THE FORECAST BEGINNING 18Z MONDAY. GFS AND ECWMF STILL IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PREVIOUS 2 RUNS OF MEXMOS STILL HAVE AT
LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO THIS TREND WAS
CONTINUED IN THE GRIDS...WITH CONTINUED SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE
ALSO TWEAKED ONLY SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD...CONTINUING THE TREND
OF COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ACCOUNTING FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THE SITUATION
BECOMES A BIT MURKIER...AS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A SOMEWHAT.
WITH THAT IN MIND...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMED REASONABLE ENOUGH AS IS. OTHER THAN THAT
THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

SFC BOUNDARY IS HARD TO LOCATE BUT SFC OBS INDICATE IT IS LOCATED THE
LENGTH OF THE COMMONWEALTH FROM AROUND PKB TO HOP. SOUTH OF THIS
BNDRY WE EXPECT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING
STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE SETTING SUN. EXPECT SOME RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY EARLY SUN MORNING... ESPECIALLY AT LOZ/SME IF THEY GET ANY
ADDITIONAL PCPN TO ADD TO THEIR ALREADY ELEVATED HUMIDITY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>088-109>118-120-161100-
ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
BELL-HARLAN-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-
LESLIE-LETCHER-PIKE-
505 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. FOG
WILL BE BURNING OFF BY 9 AM.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL...HOWEVER SOME STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGE TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106>108-119-161100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-POWELL-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-
WOLFE-MARTIN-
505 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ