Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUING TO BE
FLASH FLOODING. HAVE UDPATED THE NDFD GRIDS FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND
HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH AND MORNING WORDING.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/THIS MORNING/

TORNADO WATCH #132 IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS NEEDED A FEW
WARNINGS THIS MORNING. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT ONE WITH LITTLE CAPE AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER... ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INCREASING AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING DISLODGED
WITH SME AND EKQ OBS RECENTLY INDICATING RISING TEMPS AND INCREASING
WINDS. THEREFORE... THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS INCREASING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. UPSTREAM RAINFALL RATES FROM MESONET
GAGES IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY INDICATE 1-HR AND 3-HR RAINFALL THAT ARE
AT OR OVER OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WHICH WHERE DOUSED ON SATURDAY LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INITIALLY HOWEVER... SO THAT IS SOME GOOD NEWS FOR NOW.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS STATES SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EASTWARD PUSH TO A
SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND EXITING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO THE AREA THIS MORNING... KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS TRAIN OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE
LIKELY AND THIS WILL ONLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
OUR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO
OUTLINE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY... WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALOFT.

THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS RATHER HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THERE IS A BIT OF GOOD NEWS HERE HOWEVER AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE
FOR A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A
QUICKER EXIT TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. AS SUCH... QPF HAS BEEN KNOCKED
BACK A BIT IN LINE WITH THE 02/06Z HPC QPF GUIDANCE. WE NOW
ANTICIPATE RAINFALL ON AVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 3 INCHES FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DOWN TO AN INCH AND A
HALF FOR OUR FAR EAST. TRAINING OF CELLS WILL OF COURSE LIKELY BRING
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO THESE. THE GROUND IS SATURATED FOR MOST
AREAS AFTER WHAT FELL ON SATURDAY... SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
REAL AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO OUR ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

OR COURSE OUR RIVERS WILL BE IMPACTED AS WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY WARNINGS JUST YET AS EXPECTED RISES STILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON QPF. LESS OVERALL QPF IN THE EAST MAY HELP LIMIT RISES ON
THE BIG SANDY AND CUMBERLAND... BUT THE KENTUCKY... ESPECIALLY SOUTH
FORK AND POINTS ON THE MAIN STEM DOWNSTREAM OF BEATTYVILLE STILL
STAND THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RIVER FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT QPF
FORECASTS.

THE QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE PROGS HAS NECESSITATED A LOWERING
OF RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPS
WARM BACK INTO THE 80S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. A WEAK DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
OHIO ON TUESDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES
OUT OF OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE HPC GUIDANCE
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THIS
DAY AS WELL. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH FRONT MOVING ACROSS
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL HAVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST...WITH LOCATIONS CURRENTLY AT VFR LOWERING TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS
END RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE IMPROVING
CONDTIONS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE/SBH
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...SBH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PASS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN ON TOP OF WHAT FELL ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...AND EVENTUALLY MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
OF SOME LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...
OR WIND DAMAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FRENCHBURG              37.95N 83.62W
05/02/2010                   MENIFEE            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            460 WEST NEAR MEANS CLOSED AS WELL AS SEVERAL OTHER ROADS
            THROUGHOUT MENIFEE COUNTY. 2 SHELTERS HAVE BEEN SET UP
            FOR UNDETERMINABLE NUMBER OF RESIDENCES THREATENED BY
            FLOOD WATER. ONE SHELTER IS AT MEANS AND THE OTHER IS AT
            BIG WOODS.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/02/2010                   POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BLOCKED AT MILE MARKER 16 IN CLAY CITY
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. WATER RISING RAPIDLY...RUNNING
            ACROSS BOTH EAST AND WEST BOUND LANES. WINCHESTER
            KENTUCKY IS BEING REQUESTED TO CLOSE THE PARKWAY AT THE
            ENTRANCE IN CLARK COUNTY AND THE PARKWAY IS BEING CLOSED
            AT THE 18 MILE MARKER IN CLAY CITY. ALSO...ADAMS RIDGE
            ROAD AND SKINNER HOLLER HAVE BEEN CLOSED.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
228 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOREHEAD                38.19N 83.44W
05/02/2010                   ROWAN              KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE THROUGHOUT ROWAN COUNTY. 8
            INCHES OF WATER IS OVER TRIPPLET STREET IN MOREHEAD. NIP
            HOLLOW ROAD IS EXPERIENCING RISING WATER AT HALDEMAN
            WHILE THE INTERSECTION OF LOGAN HOLLOW ROAD AND COPPERAS
            HOLLOW ROAD IS IMPASSABLE NORTH OF MOREHEAD. ALSO...THERE
            IS A MUDSLIDE AT THE 4000 BLOCK OF CRISTY CREEK ROAD
            SOUTH OF MOREHEAD.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      IRVINE                  37.70N 83.97W
05/02/2010                   ESTILL             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE OF COUNTY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED. QUAIL RUN ROAD
            AND WALLING ROAD ARE IMPASSABLE.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/02/2010                   POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MAIN STREET IN CLAY CITY IS IMPASSABLE AT DAIRY QUEEN DUE
            TO WATER OVER ROADWAY. ALSO THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY IS NOW
            CLOSED AT EXIT 22 ON THE WEST SIDE OF STANTON INSTEAD OF
            CLOSED AT EXIT 18 IN CLAY CITY.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CLAY CITY               37.86N 83.93W
05/02/2010                   POWELL             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            IN CLAY CITY...A VEHICLE IS STRANDED AT THE ADAMS RIDGE
            BRIDGE WITH OCCUPANTS STILL INSIDE. RESCUE UNDERWAY.
            ALSO...WATER UP TO THE BRIDGE ON WINCHESTER ROAD AT THE
            POWELL/CLARK COUNTY LINE. THIS ROAD IS CLOSED AS WELL.

&&

JCARICO