Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADD THE REST OF OUR COUNTIES TO THE NEW TORNADO
WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE AND A RESURGENCE
OF POPS WITH THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT IN THE HOURLY GRIDS. LATEST MESO
ANALYSIS CHARTS FROM SPC INDICATE THAT HIGHER CAPE...AND
INSTABILITY...IS BUILDING NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE. HELICITY REMAINS HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA WITH A
VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD FROM THE SFC UP TO 500 MB. AS A RESULT...A
TORNADO WATCH WAS HOISTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND REPLACED
THE EARLIER ONE OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. PLAN ON CLEARING THE WATCH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THREAT
DIMINISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THIS...THE WIND THREAT
REMAINS EXTREME WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAKING IT TO THE SFC OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE AND SOME EVEN HIGHER GUSTS REPORTED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR EAST. IN ADDITION TO TRACKING THE HIGHEST
STORM THREATS HOURLY THROUGH THE WX GRIDS...HAVE UPDATED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS
UPDATE...AS WELL.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
VERY POTENT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG SHEAR AND VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT
WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET...OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WARNING
LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
CURRENT THINKING IS TO ISSUE EITHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING AS
NEEDED OR A SHORT DURATION WIND WARNING THAT WILL BE TIMED WITH THE
PASSING OF THE SQUALL LINE AND FRONT. SPC IS INDICATING A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL KENTUCKY UP INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. EASTERN KENTUCKY IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. I AM IN AGREEMENT WITH
THAT THINKING...HOWEVER WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS
BECAUSE OF THE CRAZY SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ELEMENT THAT IS LACKING SOMEWHAT IS INSTABILITY. WITH THE VERY
STRONG SHEAR...WILL NEED TO BE WATCHFUL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
AREA...AM NOT LOOKING FOR ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS. THE FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING AND ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER WILL BE
ENDING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

MADE SOME WHOLESALE CHANGES TO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BOTH VERY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED QPF FORECAST FOR
DAY 7 THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WENT INTO THE GRIDS AND ADJUST THE
CLOUD COVER...QPF...POP...AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. IT LOOKS LIKE A SLUGGISH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGHT
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WENT WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN FORECASTING SO FAR
IN THE FUTURE. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO THE WINDS AND
TEMPS...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC WAS REQUIRED. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE
VFR. THE CONCERN IS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED
SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD AFFECT THE SME
TAF SITE FIRST BY 18Z AND EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH JKL BY 22Z.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE SITES WHEN THE LINE APPROACHES AND SHOULD HAVE A 2 HOUR
DURATION AT EACH SITE BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE GUSTING TO 45
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SEVERE WINDS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS OF
60 MPH OR MORE. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER PASSAGE WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 MPH AFTER 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

MESOSCALE UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ/GREIF
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
910 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-271615-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
910 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SUSTAINED
AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
AS THE FRONT AND ITS SQUALL LINE ENTERS THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WITH SPEEDS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHORT DURATION TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE VIGILANT AND CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF HIGH
WINDS...WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING BLOWN DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS...AS
WELL AS FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TORNADO SITINGS.

JJ/GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KEAVY                   37.00N 84.17W
10/26/2010                   LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 363.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
209 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E KIMPER              37.50N 82.31W
10/26/2010                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ONE LANE OF TRAFFIC.

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
234 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CUMBERLAND              36.98N 82.99W
10/26/2010                   HARLAN             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF OF HOUSE.

&&

TBREWER