Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...UPDATED

A TRAINING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 07Z WILL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 09Z.
OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE DEPICT A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH ISOLATED STORMS FIRING
ALONG THIS LINE. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME SURFACE BASED SUPPORT FOR STORMS
MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

AS OF 07Z IR SHOWS THE MCS MOVING INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
DISPLAYING SOME STRENGTHENING CHARACTERISTICS BUT OTHERWISE HOLDING
TOGETHER WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF 70+ DEGREES C. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST
TIMING OF THE MCS TO BE NEAR 16Z AND 17Z AND WITH THE CURRENT TRACK
TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...BASED ON FLEMING...ROWAN
AND ELLIOTT RECEIVING RAIN THE NIGHT BEFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TILL 00Z FOR THESE COUNTIES.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES A STRONGER
DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
RIDGING IS FOLLOWED FOR FRIDAY AND A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROUGH WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND PERHAPS
BEATING THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT BUT WE CONTINUED TO RELY ON THE FLATTER
AND WEAKER MODELING OF THIS FEATURE MEANING WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA.

AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE JUST TO OUR NORTH
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRIGGER WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH PWATS RETURNING TO OVER 2
INCHES... ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HEAD BACK TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST DRY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY STALL OUT OVER OUR AREA AS
THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE OUR
WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S... BUT HIGHS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD RESIDE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90. WE BET ON A CONTINUED GFSX MOS WARM BIAS SO HELD FORECAST HIGHS
SLIGHTLY UNDER THAT GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
70... WITH PERHAPS A BIT COOLER VALUES MONDAY NIGHT IF WE CAN GET A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

CURRENTLY...TSTMS HAVE FIRED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KY
AND ARE MOVING ENE AT AROUND 25KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE PERIOD BUT A LOOSE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME
VALLEY FOG TO THE MIX AND EXPECT VSBYS GOING DOWN TO MVFR AT KSME
AND KLOZ BY AROUND 7-9Z. KJKL WILL BE CLOSER TO THE INITIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS AND AS SUCH HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. OTHER TAFS SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE THREAT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IF NOT SOONER AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL
TAFS FROM 13Z ON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...PICKING UP JUST A BIT TO AROUND 7 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1153 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

KYZ044-051-052-210445-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-
1153 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 1245 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING...

   FLEMING...
   NORTHERN ROWAN AND
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL BATH.

AT 1153 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOXPORT TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MOUNT CARMEL TO COWAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 28 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GRAYSON TO 9 MILES NORTH OF FLEMINGSBURG TO 12 MILES
WEST OF FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...TILTON AROUND
MIDNIGHT EDT...WALLINGFORD AROUND 1205 AM EDT...HILLSBORO AROUND 1210
AM EDT...PLUMMERS LANDING AROUND 1215 AM EDT...WALTZ AROUND 1220 AM
EDT...

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

JACOBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT CARMEL            38.49N 83.64W
07/21/2010                   FLEMING            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME RESIDENTS ARE EVACUATING DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DALESBURG               38.47N 83.68W
07/21/2010                   FLEMING            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COMING INTO HOMES. LOCAL CITIZENS ARE EVACUATING.
            KY 57 WILL IS IMPASSABLE IN SOME AREAS.

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FOXPORT                 38.48N 83.59W
07/21/2010                   FLEMING            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COMING INTO HOMES AND OVER ROADWAYS. SOME RESIDENTS
            ARE EVACUATING HOMES

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TRIPLETT                38.29N 83.40W
07/21/2010  E0.00 INCH       ROWAN              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE FROM TRAILERS

&&

MB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>