Tornado Warning 11, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES TODAY ALONG WITH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST AS STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD
1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS SFC LOW OVER THE NERN GOMEX TRACKS
INLD ACRS NERN FL EXPECT SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE CLOSE TO 500J AS DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG
WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...THIS WILL REDUCE
HELICITY VALUES DOWN INTO THE 300-400 RANGE BUT STILL LARGE ENOUGH AND
IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG 50 KT LLVL JET AND 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL
JET TO EXPECT ROTATING STORMS WITH WINDS/HAIL AND PSBL TORNADOES.
APPEARS AS THOUGH CURRENT GRIDS/ZFP AND HAZARD WX OUTLOOK HAS EVENT
NICELY COVERED. MODELS STILL CONSISTENT WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH SOME LINGER
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS THAT
WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ENDING. SOME RISK OF
TEMPORARY IFR CONDS IN HEAVIEST TSTM ACTIVITY AS WELL AS SOME
LOWER CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH TSTM ACTIVITY BUT OVERALL NOT TOO STRONG.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SELY FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES SO WILL KEEP
ADVISORY POSTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH CAUTION NEARSHORE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AND DECREASE IN SPEEDS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  55  73  53 /  90  20  50  50
SSI  65  56  69  57 /  90  20  50  40
JAX  72  57  70  55 /  90  20  50  40
SGJ  73  61  70  58 /  90  40  60  30
GNV  74  62  71  52 /  90  60  70  30
OCF  75  64  72  53 /  90  80  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

HESS/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
416 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AS A STRONG WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE...AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE LIFT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.
AT THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING NORTH TO NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY
82 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...ALL STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALSO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO
ESTABLISH AREA-WIDE TODAY...RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE ADVANCES OFFSHORE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TODAY. SEE THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE
LINE.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON RIVER BASINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

FLZ040-111515-
MARION-
936 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 1015
AM EST...

AT 935 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUNNELLON...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RAINBOW
LAKES ESTATES...DUNNELLON...ROMEO...OCALA AIRPORT...SANTOS...OCALA...
FLEMINGTON...REDDICK...LOWELL AND ANTHONY THROUGH 1015 AM EST. GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION
WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2901 8237 2902 8241 2904 8244 2904 8251
      2906 8254 2918 8254 2923 8250 2923 8240
      2933 8241 2949 8227 2919 8186 2899 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 228DEG 28KT 2911 8238

HESS