Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER
SE GA WITH WEAK UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM WELL E OF THE AREA TO S
FL. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE IN
PREDOMINANT LIGHT SW-W GRADIENT FLOW. WEAKER E COAST SEABREEZE HAS
BEGUN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS WELL...BUT NO TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AS YET. TEMPS ARE UNIFORM IN THE LOWER 90S.

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE FL THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. LESS TSTM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA. UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAR ENUF TO THE
N TO NOT AFFECT THE AREA THRU SUNSET. HOWEVER...EVENING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR REMAINS OF CONVECTION OR OUTFLOWS MOVING S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST S OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY N
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING MORE E FLOW TO THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP POPS
AT 60 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S PORTION OF THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK. WHILE THE AREA
IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE...POPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL.
HOWEVER...HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS THE WAVE SHIFTS TO
THE W AND MOIST SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION WILL FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THIS AFTN AS THE SEABREEZES MOVE INLAND. INCLUDED TEMPO TS GROUPS
FOR ALL FL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ONLY CB AT SSI SINCE
THE SEABREEZE HAS MOVED WEST OF THE SITE ALREADY. WILL MONITOR
CONVECTION OVER SC TO SEE IF TS NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED IN SSI LATER
THIS EVENING. TONIGHT GNV AND VQQ WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR IN BR.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE GRADUALLY BACKING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SUN SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY...THEN SSE IN THE AFTN. LATE
MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS REBUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS WITH A DOMINANT
ESE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH WILL
APPROACH SE FL LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING LOCALLY AND SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 6 FT (SCEC
CONDITIONS) WELL OFFSHORE. THE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  72  93 /  30  30  10  30
SSI  77  89  77  89 /  20  20  10  20
JAX  74  92  74  91 /  20  30  10  30
SGJ  76  89  76  89 /  20  30  20  30
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  40  60  30  60
OCF  72  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/PRESNALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
506 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 103 INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S INLAND WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO
100 TO 103 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN
OUTDOORS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AND PROGRESS INLAND. THE MOST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER 2 INCHES. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE MOST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. THE SLOW STORM MOTION
WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

GAZ164-192100-
CHARLTON-
421 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WINOKUR TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF WINOKUR...NEARLY STATIONARY. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WINOKUR THROUGH
500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OCCURS A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3085 8194 3086 8209 3102 8209 3104 8206
      3104 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 270DEG 2KT 3099 8201 3089 8201

ZAPPE