Small Craft Advisory 21, NWS Jacksonville, FL

776 
WHUS72 KJAX 180739 AAA
MWWJAX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
339 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

AMZ470-472-474-182100-
/O.CON.KJAX.SC.Y.0021.100318T0800Z-100319T0800Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
339 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FEET AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

449 
WHUS72 KJAX 181858
MWWJAX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
258 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

AMZ470-182000-
/O.CAN.KJAX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-100319T0800Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
258 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTHOUGH
SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET AT TIMES.

$$

AMZ472-474-190800-
/O.CON.KJAX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-100319T0800Z/
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
258 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FEET AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE SEA STATE IS COMPOSED OF NORTHEAST SWELLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

693 
WHUS72 KJAX 190750
MWWJAX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010


AMZ472-474-190900-
/O.CAN.KJAX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-100319T0800Z/
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
350 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS AND SEAS ARE DECREASING TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


$$

LETRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUD/WET AND COOL ST. PATRICKS DAY ACRS SE GA/NE FL
WITH UPR LOW APPROACHING THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADING
ACRS THE NRN FL PENINSULA HAS SHIFTED RAIN OFFSHORE...WHILE RAIN
CONTINUES ACRS CTRL/SRN GA.

.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU FRI NGT...UPR LOW FCST TO MOVE ACRS AREA
LATE TNGT AND THURS. ANTICIPATE THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING ACRS SRN GA...
PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACRS NRN FL PENINSULA DURING
LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE LOW
AND MID CLOUDINESS TNGT AS PRESENTLY SEEN ACRS MS/AL. MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS PARTICULARLY LATE TMRW AFTN. DESPITE COLD AIR
ALOFT...MODELS SUGGEST SFC DWPTS DROP INTO MID 40S AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES NWRLY...RESULTING IN ONLY SOME LLVL INSTBY. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED/WDLY SCT'D SHOWERS BENEATH UPR LOW...SO WILL SHOW POPS
DECREASING TNGT...THEN DRY FRI MRNG...WITH 20 POPS DURING AFTN.
WILL GO CLOSE TO MAV GUID TEMPS TNGT/THURS.

UPR LOW GRADUALLY MOVES E OF AREA THURS NGT INTO FRI...WITH WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA FRI AFTN/NGT. SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE...WITH
RISING LLVL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 70S...
NEAR MOS GUID.

.LONG TERM...SAT THRU WED...NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS ON SAT. ECMWF A BIT STRONGER...AND AS A RESULT SLOWER...
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SYSTEM COULD END UP CLOSER IN STRENGTH
TO ECMWF...AND THUS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT GFS IS SHOWING. EXPECT
A NICE DAY SAT WITH HIGH TEMPS IN MID 70S...PERHAPS UPR 70S GNV/OCF.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE SAT NGT BUT ANY PCPN WILL REMAIN W OF FCST
AREA EVEN WITH FASTER GFS SOLUTION. BEST RAIN CHCS APPEAR TO BE SUN
AFTN WRN HALF OF FCST AREA...AND LATE AFTN INTO EVNG ERN HALF. GFS
SHOWING ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS...STRONGER ECMWF HAS MORE SIG
RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...FOR OUR AREA SUN.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST OF CHC SHRA AND SLGT CHC TSRA SUN
AFTN/EVNG. WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT MOVEMENT THAN GFS...WILL
GO A LITTLE ABOVE MEX GUID SUN AND FCST HIGH TEMPS IN LOW/MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM W ON MON WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...MID/UPR 60S...PERHAPS NEAR 70 ARND OCF. TEMPS SHOULD
GET BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WED. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE STATIONS HAVE IMPROVED A BIT WITH VFR OCCURRING
AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE MODERATE RAINS ARE OVER INLAND SE GA ATTM
BUT AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACK EWD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN BACK TO MVFR AND
THEN IFR LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THU
MORNING BEFORE CIGS RISE TO MVFR OR VFR BY NOON.

&&

.MARINE...NELY FLOW FROM THIS MORNING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT. SEAS ARE MAINLY COMPOSED OF
SWELL ATTM PER BUOY SPECTRAL PLOTS. AS SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE WITH SCA EXPECTED OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT AND HAVE POSTED WITH THIS PACKAGE. SCA WILL GO THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. MAY GO WITH SCEC NEARSHORE ALTHOUGH IT TOO LOOKS
MARGINAL. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT MAY BE A TAD TOO
LOW INITIALLY. NWLY FLOW WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY AS WELL AS LONGER PERIOD SWELLS INTO THE WEEKEND EVEN AS
LIGHT WINDS SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS UNTIL FRI WHEN DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA. NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 4 HRS DURATION OF LOW RH FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF NE FL. LLVL MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW
WHICH LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT IT'S TOO MARGINAL FOR A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOW RH VALUES IN FIRE WX
DISCUSSION AND THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  65  43  74 /  30  10  10   0
SSI  46  62  47  70 /  40  20  10   0
JAX  46  64  44  73 /  30  20  10  10
SGJ  49  62  47  70 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  47  64  42  74 /  20  20  10   0
OCF  47  65  43  74 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

WOLF/SHASHY/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
510 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

RAINS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY. REFER
TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SWELLS WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY PRECEDED BY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY. MINOR
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON THIS WEEKEND.
REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL