Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
120 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

...TORNADO WATCH NE FL EXTREME SE GA IN EFFECT TIL 4 PM...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN MOVING THROUGH
NE FL AND EXTREME SE GA ATTM. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN ST. GEORGE.
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF.

BY FRIDAY MORNING ONLY THE FAR SOUTH PORTION WILL HAVE LINGERING
RAIN CHANCES...THEN SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. AIR
MASS MOVING IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO OR
5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR NE FL. WHAT FOLLOWS IS A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM LATE FRI TO SAT AFTN
THEN MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT. A SFC RIDGE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY WILL BRING NELY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE
REGION KEEPING SE GA AND NE FL COAST IN THE 60S...BUT SW PORTION
WILL REACH LOWER 70S.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. JET DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE AGAIN BUT
INSTABILITY MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM. COULD STILL HAVE A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS LOCAL AREA IS WITHIN RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE RGN
OF UPR JET.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TUE/WED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT
WEEK WITH MINS IN THE 30S ACRS THE INTERIOR BUT STILL NO WIDESPREAD
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN.
HAVE PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IFR DUE TO TS AND WIND GUSTS TO 35
KNOTS. AFTER 01Z...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM SHRA
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVE. ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVERNITE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  69  42  66 /  20  10  10  10
SSI  56  69  45  61 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  57  74  45  68 /  40  10  10  10
SGJ  62  73  50  67 /  50  20   0  10
GNV  59  75  45  73 /  40  10  10  10
OCF  61  76  45  74 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PP/ECZ/AW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1251 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-212100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1251 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

....TORNADO WATCH 5 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
COLUMBIA...DUVAL...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...NASSAU...PUTNAM...
ST. JOHNS...SUWANNEE AND UNION.

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN...CHARLTON AND GLYNN.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS THE JACKSONVILLE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRUNSWICK TO LAKE CITY TO
LIVE OAK. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO PROMOTE
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM SPOTTER
GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER BECOME
IMMINENT.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY.

THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW STARKE            30.00N 82.13W
01/21/2010                   BRADFORD           FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED ONE CAR FLIPPED OVER WITH 3
            HOUSE TRAILERS DAMAGED BY FALLEN TREES. DAMAGE REPORTED
            NEAR COUNTY ROAD 225 AND STATE ROAD 16. NO INJURIES
            REPORTED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             8 NNW SAINT AUGUSTINE   30.00N 81.36W
01/21/2010  E0.50 INCH       ST. JOHNS          FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER AROUND WORLD
            GOLF VILLAGE.

&&

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

FLZ031-032-036-212015-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-
229 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHERN BRADFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 315 PM EST...

AT 229 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKER...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WORTHINGTON SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LA CROSSE...
BROOKER...SAMPSON...WALDO...HAMPTON...STARKE...LAKE GENEVA AND
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS THROUGH 315 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 2993 8243 2993 8235 2995 8234 2996 8195
      2976 8195 2979 8246 2993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 269DEG 40KT 2987 8236

WOLF

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