Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
415 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

.UPDATE...DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM
FROM THE AREA ALONG WITH EVIDENCE THAT NAM DEPICTION OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40
PERCENT IN NW AND W ZONES AND 30 PERCENT IN INTERIOR FL AND
REMAINDER OF GA ZONES. HAVE ALSO RETAINED POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
STORMS IN THOSE ZONES WITH 30 PERCENT OR GREATER POPS. WILL UPDATE
GRAPHICS...CCF AND PFM SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  79  53  81 /  40  10  10  10
SSI  61  76  62  76 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  61  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10
SGJ  66  78  64  77 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  63  84  57  84 /  30  10  10   0
OCF  66  85  59  86 /  20  10  10   0

CARROLL

&&

### PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ###

.SYNOPSIS...SFC DATA SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SC TO SE AL TO NEAR THE
MOUTH OF MS RIVER. RADAR SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS VERY LACKING AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY VALUES INDICATE SBCAPES OF 2500-3000J/KG OVER NRN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA AND SOMEWHAT LESS OVER THE SRN 1/3. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWED
CAPES UP TO 4 KFT OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AT 17Z AND OVERALL VERY
WEAK CIN. PWATS ALONG THE FRONT PEAK NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND TAPERS OFF
TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER OUR CWA.

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF AFTN AND TONIGHT...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST
THINKING IS LLVL FORCING FOR THIS FRONT IS WEAK AND AT THIS TIME
ANTICIPATE ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE EVENING SE OF A LINE FROM
BRUNSWICK TO TALLAHASSEE. COOLER TEMPS ON THE WAY BY MORNING IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH N TO NE FLOW
AND OCNL BREEZY WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS EXPECTED. HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL FROM UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO LOWER 80S INLAND. SUN
NIGHT...COOLER WITH MID 50S N TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S S AND NEAR
THE COAST. NE FLOW MAY BRING IN ADDITIONAL LLVL MOISTURE BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT FOR FOG TO BE MENTIONED IN FORECAST. MON-TUE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E INTO ATLC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW. THUS ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S AND MINS
LOWER TO MID 60S. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED INLAND SE GA AT
NIGHT AND NOT AS COOL NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM OVER THE NE GULF AND WRN
ATLC DURING THE EXTDD PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY
SAT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE S AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVELS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AREA. LLVL RIDGE
REMAINS NEAR 30N RESULTING IN PREDOMINATE SE TO S WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD AND WARMER TEMPS TO OR ABOVE CLIMO. AGAIN...NO PRECIP IS
WORTH MENTIONING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAINING N OF THE AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN SUFFICIENT LOW TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHWR/TSTM WITH SEA BREEZES BOUNDARIES
LATER IN THE WEEK OR SAT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU DECK AROUND 4K FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNSET AND COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCTS WORDING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH NO
FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH/NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL PUSH WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HAVE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MIN RH
VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 25-30% RANGE OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

GAZ150-163-082245-
CLINCH-WARE-
600 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH AND
CENTRAL WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DU PONT...OR 4
MILES NORTH OF LAKELAND...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND DU PONT...HOMERVILLE
AND ARGYLE THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3098 8297 3116 8298 3116 8297 3102 8241
      3072 8262 3092 8298 3097 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 289DEG 33KT 3108 8303

CARROLL