Red Flag Warning 110, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2010

...HARD FREEZE WITH LOW CHILLS TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...1000MB SURFACE LOW NOW OFF THE GA COAST WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH OVER SE GA/NE FL. RAIN
IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END OVER NE FL WITH SCATTERED AREAS
LINGERING OVER SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE...THERE STILL IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS MODELS INDICATE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW FLURRIES IN FORECAST FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES IN
SE GA THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH EXPECTED...LAKE WIND AVSY IS IN EFFECT TIL THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL ALSO STAY UP TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON
BACK SIDE OF LOW. WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED INLAND DUE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS SO
WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL AVSY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AS DECREASING WINDS WILL PRODUCE EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY. RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER THE SE WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER RIDGE ON
THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH THIS FEATURE
SO ONLY SOME MID- HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. MODELS SLOW DOWN NEXT
COLD FRONT TILL SUNDAY SO EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD STAY MILD AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS LOWERING BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THRU TAF
SITES 06-07Z ACCOMPANIED BY 15-25KT WNW WINDS. CIGS BEHIND FRONT
APPEAR TO BE IN 006-012 RANGE...AND THAT IS WHATS CURRENTLY FCST IN
TAFS THRU THE MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WNW WINDS THRU THE DAY
GIVEN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL
CONTINUE GUSTS INTO EVENING BEFORE THEY TAPER OFF AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING ALL AREAS (INITIALLY SCA
NEARSHORE). BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOWING OCCASIONALLY GALE FORCE WINDS
SRN PART OF OUR MARINE AREA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
AND EXPAND INTO NEARSHORE COMPONENT AS SFC LOW REFORMS OFF SE U.S.
COAST AND INTENSIFIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING
AND EXPAND TO ALSO INCLUDE GILCHRIST...ALACHUA AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...BEST CHANCE FOR SUFFICIENT TEMP-DEWPT SPREAD FOR MIN RH'S
TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY REACH 35 PCT ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL BE
ACRS OUR SRN COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL...MIN RH
CRITERION MAY NOT BE MET FOR RFW...BUT COMBO OF GUSTY WINDS...RH'S
DOWN TO 35-40 PCT RANGE AND BELOW NORMAL RAINAFLL MAY ENHANCE FIRE
DANGER...WILL NOTE THIS IN FIRE DANGER STMT.

WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MON AFTN ACRS ALL OF NE FL
WHERE MIN RH CRITERIA IS LIKELY TO BE REACHED. POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AS WELL...AND PERHAPS WED SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION OF NE FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  25  48  21 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  47  28  47  29 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  46  25  49  24 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  50  27  49  29 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  48  23  50  21 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  50  24  51  21 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ALACHUA-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-PUTNAM.

GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ZIBURA/WOLF

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