Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BRISK TODAY AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG CAA OVER OUR REGION. MOST SITES WERE
REPORTING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
ABOVE 30 MPH. STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS AT 925MB WERE PROGGED AT 40 TO 45KTS. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT TODAY FOR THE WHOLE AREA.
TODAY'S HIGHS WERE SET AT MIDNIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SUNSHINE TODAY BUT A COLD LAYER OF STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO DROP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION IN THE NORTHEAST AND BRING A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WELL. THE GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS CAME IN A LITTLE
TOO WARM FOR THE NORTHEAST SO HAVE CUT SEVERAL DEGREES AS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S THERE. LOWER 40S MAY BE ACHIEVED
ELSEWHERE WHERE THERE IS DECENT INSOLATION. THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE EVENING AND BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9AM MONDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT OUR SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE SURFACE
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. I CANNOT RECALL THE
LAST TIME I FCST NEGATIVE SURFACE DEW POINTS. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY NOT
GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR MONDAY BEFORE
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AGAIN MONDAY EVENING. A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY THERE FOR PROLONGED DURATION
BELOW FREEZING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUR IN THE TEENS AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...COLD CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.  TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UP
QUICKLY DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE REGION... AND THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BEGIN TO TRY AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION...WHILE SLOWLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST DURING THE MID AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...COLD
ADVECTION WILL AGAIN SETUP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THUS KEEPING A COLD DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS BUT A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
MAIN AFFECT OVER OUR AREA WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY. SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 18 TO 22KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
NORTH. A LAYER OF STRATOCU AROUND 3-4KFT WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
AFTER SUNRISE FROM KGWO TO KGTR TO KMEI BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY 00Z
MON. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LAYER OF CLOUDS
IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT BUT SUSTAINED NW WINDS OF 8 TO 12KTS WILL CONTINUE. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  21  39  20 /   3   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      42  19  37  19 /   6   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     45  20  40  18 /   1   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   45  19  42  17 /   2   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  21  42  21 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    42  19  34  18 /   6   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     39  18  33  17 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>039.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

AR...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ARZ074-075.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

22/19/22

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