Tornado Warning 96, NWS Jackson, MS

160 
WWUS54 KJAN 112242
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

LAC065-MSC055-149-112252-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0096.000000T0000Z-101211T2330Z/
WARREN MS-ISSAQUENA MS-MADISON LA-
442 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES...AND EASTERN MADISON PARISH IS CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3264 9071 3235 9063 3235 9065 3236 9068
      3235 9070 3228 9124 3246 9130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 255DEG 36KT 3244 9094

$$

BK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

.DEVELOPING STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF A STRONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS RAMPING UP RIGHT NOW IN MY
WESTERN ZONES AT THE JUXTAPOSITION OF VIGOROUS GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND MASSIVE DYNAMICALLY-DRIVEN UPWARD MOTION. LARGE SCALE
500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 100 TO 150
METERS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT THAT IS IN PLAY IN
THIS SITUATION. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THIS LIFT IS FILLING IN THE GAP
OF VERY MODEST INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO FUEL CONVECTION AS ABSOLUTE
MOISTURE VALUES (REPRESENTED WELL BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S IN THE WARM SECTOR) ARE QUITE MEAGER. PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THAT
IT WOULD TAKE AT LEAST THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM NOSING DECIDEDLY
UP INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE FUEL FOR POTENT
STORMS. HOWEVER...THAT PREVIOUS ASSERTION MAY NOT BE VALID SINCE WE
HAVE ALREADY WARNED ON ONE STORM WITH LESS DEWPOINT THAN WE THOUGHT
WE WOULD HAVE AT THIS TIME.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 764 FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA (ASIDE FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS) THROUGH
9 PM. LIFT AND INSTABILITY FACTORS (MENTIONED ABOVE) IN CONCERT WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO GENERATION
WERE DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WATCH ISSUANCE. THE WEDGE OF
RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY PINCHED OFF ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING TO LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER A BIT
ACROSS OUR EASTERN BORDERS (ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION OVER THERE). WE EXPECT A RATHER SOLID
SQUALL LINE TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO CONVECTION IS RATHER
BROKEN UP IN NATURE AND NOT HOSTILE TO AT LEAST A FEW DISCRETE (AND
WORRISOME) SUPERCELLS.

MODELS HAVE FINALLY ENTIRELY COME AROUND TO THE FAST ENVELOPE OF
FRONTAL TIMING AND WE NOW EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE WHOLE OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT (OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER). THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MAY LAG STORMS BY A BIT IN SOME
AREAS...BUT IT WILL NOT LAG BY MUCH. EXPECT DRAMATIC WIND SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 WITH
GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THESE SORTS OF
WINDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW AND
WERE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE ARKLAMISS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TOMORROW. CONSIDERING
THE CHUNK OF VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WE ANTICIPATE THESE WINDS WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO AT LEAST AREAS NORTH OF I-20 FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...THESE WIND CHILLS ARE
STILL ABOVE THE CRITERIA THAT WOULD NECESSITATE ANY SORT OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

I SUPPOSE THE COLD IS THE REMAINING BIG STORY IN THE SHORT
TERM...AND AFTER WAFFLING AROUND A GREAT DEAL OVER THE LAST HANDFUL
OF DAYS...MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
QUITE COLD INDEED. THE WESTERN EXTENT A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD TRACK IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO AT LEAST MY EASTERN ZONES
TO ENSURE THIS IS NOT A GLANCING BLOW OF FRIGID AIR EAST OF THE MS
RIVER AND EVEN SOME SNOW FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW IN MY NORTHEAST ZONES. THE LATTER
WAS INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER A HARD
FREEZE WARNING AT LEAST AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA WHERE HIGHS
MAY REMAIN AROUND FREEZING TOMORROW AND MONDAY WITH LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY IN THE TEENS. ELSEWHERE THE
EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS MEETING LOCAL HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IS
QUITE A BIT LOWER...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS CAN ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
ONE NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE TEENS (EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
NIGHT).

FINALLY...THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION COVERS THESE ISSUES WELL AS IS APPENDED BELOW. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE UP DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE REGION... AND
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE A
BIT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOP LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION...WHILE DRAGGING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST DURING THE MID AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN SETUP ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FORECAST AREA CAUSING COOLER DRIER AIR TO FILTER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE WINDS...BOTH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE MORE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE HIGHER...20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A QUICK HITTING
FEATURE AND ONLY IMPACT TAFS SITES FOR AN HOUR OR A TAD LONGER AT
BEST. I WILL DO MY BEST TO FOCUS ON A SMALL TIME WINDOW FOR THE
RESTRICTED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS AN THEN IMPROVE THINGS. OUTSIDE OF
THE SQUALL LINE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY CATEGORY EXPECTED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  40  22  38 /  94   5   0   0
MERIDIAN      32  40  20  39 / 100   9   0   0
VICKSBURG     31  42  23  39 /  45   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   36  44  22  42 /  84   3   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  42  23  41 /  79   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    28  39  20  34 /  16   5   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  38  19  34 /  57   9   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

BB/CME/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062-122030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
228 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3 AND 8
PM...FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A STARKVILLE TO FOREST TO MONTICELLO
LINE. ADDITIONALLY...LATEST INFORMATION SUGGESTS AREAS ALONG OR SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS...ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN LINE BREAKS OR
BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND COMBINES WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20S SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORNING WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A
POTENTIALLY COLDER NIGHT APPEARS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
UPPER TEENS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A HARD FREEZE WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IF DAY TIME
HIGHS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-
122030-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
228 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8 AND 11
PM...FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF AN ACKERMAN TO MONTICELLO LINE. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN LINE BREAKS OR BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
COMBINES WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20S SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORNING WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A
POTENTIALLY COLDER NIGHT APPEARS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
UPPER TO MIDDLE TEENS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A HARD FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IF DAY TIME HIGHS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

LAZ016-023-112110-
FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-
249 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER WINNSBORO AT 249 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-034-112140-
CHICOT AR-BOLIVAR MS-SUNFLOWER MS-WASHINGTON MS-
311 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF WINTERVILLE AT 310 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...EXTREME WEST CENTRAL SUNFLOWER...
SOUTHERN BOLIVAR AND NORTHEASTERN CHICOT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

LAZ008-009-MSZ040-112200-
WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-
331 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF LAKE PROVIDENCE AT 331 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTY...AND NORTHERN EAST CARROLL AND
EAST CENTRAL WEST CARROLL PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

LAZ008-009-015-016-112205-
WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-RICHLAND LA-MADISON LA-
344 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF HOLLY RIDGE AT 345 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND...SOUTHWESTERN
EAST CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

LAZ016-023-112205-
FRANKLIN LA-MADISON LA-
345 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER WINNSBORO AT 346 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN PARISHES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

MSZ019-025-112245-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
402 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SUNFLOWER AT 402 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LEFLORE AND CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.