Tornado Warning 44, NWS Jackson, MS

378 
WWUS54 KJAN 272324
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
624 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

MSC061-129-272333-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-101027T2345Z/
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-
624 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND SOUTHERN SMITH
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3181 8935 3180 8941 3179 8965 3194 8965
      3205 8920 3182 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 258DEG 18KT 3188 8943

$$

BK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) THE TORNADO
WATCH CONTINUING FOR LAUDERDALE AND KEMPER COUNTIES AS MULTI-CELL
TSRA CLUSTERS HEADING THAT DIRECTION ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
VERY RICH AIRMASS PWATS OF ALMOST 2 INCHES ON LATEST SATELLITE TPW
IMAGES. MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND S
OF THE FRONT AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA TRACK ENE ALONG
THE FRONT AT 30KTS. MLCAPES NEAR 2000J/KG AND SBCAPES 3000J/KG IN THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WE WILL BE RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS
QPF AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0 INCH BEFORE THEY END LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MODELS DISAGREE ON REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW RAINBAND ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING. IF THIS RAIN CAN GET GOING PER THE PAST TWO
NAM12 RUNS AND THEN SWEEP SEWD...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SOAK DOWN MUCH
OF THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO.
OTHERWISE...A FRESH SUPPLY OF COOL DRY AIR NOW CROSSING THE OZARKS
WILL START TO KICK OUR FRONT TO SURGE SEWD STARTING ABOUT 04Z NW HALF
OF THE CWFA. THE NW FLOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR ABOUT 08Z AND THEN INTO SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SURGE SWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE91034MB) DEVELOPS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. WE HAVE PROJECTED THE LOWEST AFTERNOON RH VALUES OVER THE
DELTA REGION WITH NEAR 20 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN EASING UP BY THAT TIME. OF COURSE...MODELS COULD
EASILY BE UNDER-DOING THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY ON THURSDAY.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING RATHER RAPIDLY THURSDAY AS PWATS TANK FROM
1.5 INCHES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES THURSDAY WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT AT CLOSE TO 70F NW AND 80F SE. CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING NLY WINDS WILL SEND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 37F N
AND 44F S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY 65-72F FOLLOWED BY MUCH BETTER RADITAIONAL
COOLING LOWS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND IMPROVING POTENTIAL FOR THE
SEASON/S FIRST AREAS/WIDESPREAD FROST. SEVERAL NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THEIR FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON./40/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING CHANGE INTO THE HALLOWEEN
WEEKEND. THE POWERFUL(AND RECORD BREAKING) UPPER LOW AND BROAD TROUGH
THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING THE REGION WILL FINALLY GET PUSHED OUT AND
BROAD RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SPELL
ANOTHER BOUT OF DRY WEATHER WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH...HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A WEAKENING 1028MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE ARKLAMISS DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE IN LINE WITH OCTOBER READINGS AS HIGHS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 70S. SKIES
REMAIN SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND CLEAR AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AROUND 30+ DEGREE DIURNAL RANGES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DROP DECENTLY DURING THIS TIME GIVEN LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

BY HALLOWEEN...THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WARMER
INTO THE 50S. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO 1 INCH BY MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CUTS
IT OFF OVER LA/MS AND SITS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE TROUGH THAT COMES OUT OF THE WEST AND DIPS DOWN OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION BUT NEVER COMPLETELY CUTS OFF. IT RE-MERGERS WITH
THE BROADER TROUGH AND THEN MOVES ON OFF THE EAST. THIS IS ALL STILL
A WEEK OUT SO INCONSISTENCIES NOT UNEXPECTED. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE
THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SOME SORT OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL TAKE SHAPE. /28/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR THURSDAY WE MAY STILL MANAGE TO SEE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY FOR
SERN MS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE CURRENT EXPECTED COMBINATION OF
DRIEST AIR AND STRONGER WINDS STILL APPEARS MARGINAL FOR CRITERIA TO
BE MET FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO. WOULD LIKE TO SEE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS/DISTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT AND SEE IF THE INCOMING AIR MASS
DEWPOINTS STAY UP LONGER IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION
THE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER IN THE HWO. /40/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT AFFECTS THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL
IMPACT SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 7 KT ARE
EXPECTED BECOMING NORTH AT 10 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KT AND GUSTING TO 25 KT ON THURSDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 28/0700 UTC AND 28/1200 UTC. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY MID-MORNING. /COHEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  76  42  69 /  57   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      62  77  38  70 /  72   6   0   0
VICKSBURG     51  76  39  68 /  44   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   67  81  43  72 /  62  17   0   0
NATCHEZ       58  74  42  68 /  54   4   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  72  40  66 /  12   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     49  72  37  66 /  22   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

LAZ024>026-MSZ031-038-039-043>066-072>074-281730-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LOWNDES-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
310 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 7 PM...AND THE RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH WILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ONE
OR TWO TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THE STORMS ARE THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN
MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>037-
040>042-281730-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
310 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN
MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

COHEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

MSZ055-056-272145-
SMITH MS-SIMPSON MS-
412 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF MARTINVILLE AT 413 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN SIMPSON AND SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

MSZ056-057-272220-
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-
449 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH AT 449 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL JASPER AND EAST CENTRAL SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

MSZ046-272250-
KEMPER MS-
522 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM ELECTRIC MILLS TO PRISMATIC AT 522 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN KEMPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

COHEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
544 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

LAZ023-272315-
FRANKLIN LA-
544 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF LIDDIEVILLE AT 544 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL FRANKLIN PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

COHEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
551 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

MSZ046-272320-
KEMPER MS-
551 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER PORTERVILLE AT 551 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN KEMPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

COHEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
556 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

MSZ056-057-272325-
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-
556 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF TAYLORSVILLE AT 556
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BK