Severe Thunderstorm Warning 443, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.UPDATE...WILL BE ISSUING ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
CANCEL PART OF THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. BAND OF THICK CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM N OF JAN SW INTO EC AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF NE LA. OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS AREA...AND
EVEN IF CONVECTION WEAKENS AND CLOUDS THIN SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS HAVE TRIMMED
OFF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY...BUT WILL
LEAVE IT AS IS FOR SAT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...AM CONCERNED THAT THAT
THE UPPER DELTA REGION OF THE ARKLAMISS MAY NEED A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING. HEAT INDICES ALREADY AOA 105F IN THESE AREAS AT 15Z...AND
GIVEN THAT SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...SEEMS LIKELY THESE
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS EVEN WITH TEMPS
AOA 100F THIS AFTERNOON. QUICK LOOK AT OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST THAT IF ANYTHING CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE N...PUTTING AREA IN THE
THERMAL RIDGE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT
12Z GUIDANCE...AND IF IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS...MAY UPDATE
AGAIN TO ISSUE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.             /AG/

&&

.AVIATION...SOLID PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS THE S HALF
AND IMPACT THE 3 SOUTHERN SITES. AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL THROUGH ATLEAST 06Z...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. I WILL
TRY AND TIME STORMS IMPACTING THE SITES CLOSER AND HAVE RESTRICTED
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORTER DURATION. AS IMPACT ON ANY PARTICULAR SITE
BECOME MORE CLEAR...WILL AMD TO COVER THOSE. AT THIS TIME...HEAVY
PRECIP LOOKS TO REDUCE VIS TO AROUND 1SM WITH CEILINGS 1500-2500 FT.
THERE SEEMS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING
ACTIVITY TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE AXIS SHIFTED TOWARD THE I-59
CORRIDOR. WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH AFTER 10Z FOR MEI/HBG. OUTSIDE
THAT...THERE COULD BE SOME TYPICAL MORNING MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
AFTER 09Z UNTIL 13Z. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  76  97  77 /  54  33  29  16
MERIDIAN      95  75  95  75 /  67  41  41  16
VICKSBURG     90  75  98  76 /  43  25  22  15
HATTIESBURG   94  76  94  77 /  75  39  62  30
NATCHEZ       89  76  97  77 /  51  19  37  18
GREENVILLE   102  77 101  78 /  17  17  15  18
GREENWOOD    100  76 101  77 /  23  25  16  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>041.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ042-047-053-
     059-060.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-026.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

AEG/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>042-047-053-
059-060-141000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
458 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO 111 DEGREES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 107 TO 112 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY BUT A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-141000-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
458 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 101 TO 106 DEGREES AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TODAY. LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL IN PLACES...LEADING TO
THE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING SOME RISK FOR TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
08/13/2010                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A PORTION OF N WALL ST WAS FLOODED WITH 14 TO 16 INCHES
            OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD. THE HIGH WATER DID APPROACH
            THE BASE OF ONE HOME...BUT NOW HAS RECEDED.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW FAYETTE            31.69N 91.09W
08/13/2010                   JEFFERSON          MS   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LOW LYING COUNTY ROADS COVERED WITH WATER WITH
            ESTIMATED 3-5 INCHES RAINFALL

&&

JALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
120 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

MSZ064-065-131850-
COVINGTON MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
120 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON DAVIS AND COVINGTON COUNTIES
AT 118 PM CDT. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. IF THIS SORT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PERSIST...THEN
FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME AND ISSUE AND A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS AND COVINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

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