Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

.UPDATE...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO EVENING FORECAST. HAVE REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FROM PRODUCTS AND LEFT ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE DELTA REGION FOR THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOTED UPSTREAM. CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STRUGGLING IN THE MODIFIED AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINS WEAKER THAN CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NO CHANGES MADE TO POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA PER EARLIER FORECAST BUT PAINTED
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WORDING DUE TO REMNANTS OF CONVECTION OBSERVED
OVER ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREA RADARS
CURRENTLY SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME
OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SVR AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OVER THE ARKLAMISS...SUNNY SKIES
HAVE PREVAILED BUT STORMS HAVE SO FAR BEEN KEPT AT BAY. GIVEN ANY
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS IN MY
CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT
01-02Z. WITH A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR IN PLACE(LOWER PW VALUES) THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AND FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY
QUICK AND FLASH FLOODING WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. THE MAIN CONCERN
WOULD BE FROM HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET OR SO.

IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ROUGHLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MS...GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO OOZE DOWN THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO FEEL MORE SEASONAL FOR MID TO LATE MAY. READINGS TONIGHT
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE PINE BELT
REGION.

FOR TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL NOT GET TOO
TERRIBLY FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE STALLING. THIS WILL BRING SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA AND BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION(WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW AN INCH TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH!). THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SIT BROADLY OVER THE
AREA AND JUST TO THE EAST AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NICER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO THE SOUTH(WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED). TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
A TOUCH COOLER WITH SOME READINGS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTS UP NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET A LITTLE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
SEASONAL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN TO RECENT READINGS WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND EVEN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
/28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE OVER OUR SRN PORTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THURSDAY
THROUGH THE CWFA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCES WE WILL SEE FOR
QUITE AWHILE. AN AXIS OF 1.5 INCH PWAT AIR RIDES NWD WITH THE WARM
FRONT FOLLOWED BY A DRIER AXIS OF AROUND 1 INCH BY FRIDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DIURNAL HEATING...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FORCING FROM THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWFA. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING AROUND 1500J/KG MLCAPES AND
6.5C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WEAKENING
THEREAFTER.

THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A BUILDING MID-
UPPER RIDGE WORKS NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT THE 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL BE RISING TO 586DM OR BETTER BY
SATURDAY WITH A 700MB ANTICYCLONE(318DM+) HUGGING THE COAST OF NW
FL. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE EXPECTED RIDGING COULD STILL ALLOW MAINLY
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TO MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MARINE AIR WILL AGAIN BE
QUITE RICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 17-19C
RANGE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM MEX
TOWARD ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNNING CLOSE TO BEING THE WARMEST MEMBER AND EVEN
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY/S WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MOSTLY TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /40/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. AREA RADARS
SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BUT COVERAGE NOT AS GREAT RIGHT NOW OVER
MISSISSIPPI. THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN AREA FOR THAT TO OCCUR APPEARS TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS WOULD MAKE HBG THE SITE WITH
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN GETTING ANY SORT OF CONVECTION BETWEEN
20-01Z. THE MORE SOLID AIRMASS OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE N PORTION OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION FOR THE N HALF LOW. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS S OF
I-20 MAY BE MORE PRIMED TO GET SOME FOG FORMATION. AS A RESULT...I
WILL GO WITH IFR VIS CONDITIONS FOR HBG AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR VIS
FOR JAN/MEI. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/40/CME
03

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