River Flood Warning 68, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SFC TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED PULSE TO MULTICELL TYPE
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH VERTICAL
TOTALS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AND ~15KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT
ACTIVITY OVER NE LA/SW MS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY OVER
THE TN VALLEY REGION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO NE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS WE GO INTO THE EVNG
HOURS...BUT EXPECT INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES
OFF.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MORE DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOOK EVEN STEEPER FOR SATURDAY WITH VERTICAL TOTALS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 AS SFC TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DCAPE ~1000 J/KG MEANS WE COULD SEE AN
ACTIVE WET MICROBURST DAY SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL HAIL UP TO AROUND
QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUNDAY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS MID LEVEL WARMING TAKES
PLACE. /EC/

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

CONCERNS WILL BE THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND
ASSOCIATED POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS CANADIAN GEM AND ENSEMBLES FORECAST THAT
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST AND BECOME GRADUALLY FLATTER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
WILL OPEN UP BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EURO AND CANADIAN
OPENS THE LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WAS SHADOWED BY THE
EURO AND CANADIAN AS WELL. MOST OF THE GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES HAVE
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND PUSH IT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING. AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WE
WILL GO BACK TO DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EURO WAS A
LITTLE FASTER AS THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE FROM
WEDNESDAYS RUN. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE FLAT RIDGE BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES. THIS
COULD GIVE THE REGION SOME DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WE WILL GET SOME UPPER JET ENERGY COMING OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS JET ENERGY WILL BE ENHANCE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS COULD ENHANCE OUR CHANCES
OF STRONG STORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES WERE IN AGREEMENT...WHILE THE EURO AND ITS
ENSEMBLES SHOWED WEAKER JET FLOW OVER THE REGION.

AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERNED MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX
POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THE JET
SEGMENT ENHANCING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX...MOS
AND MEN GUIDANCE. GOING GENERALLY WITH LOWS FROM MAINLY THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S AS WELL AS HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. THE EXCEPTION WAS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. /17/

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG
WILL DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THEN THEY WILL REDEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SATURDAY BEFORE FIZZLING OUT AGAIN SATURDAY EVNG.
SOME MVFR CATEGORY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  86  65  87 /  29  28  17  27
MERIDIAN      65  87  64  86 /  44  38  32  44
VICKSBURG     65  88  63  89 /  21  15  11  17
HATTIESBURG   68  89  67  87 /  31  43  22  45
NATCHEZ       66  87  65  89 /  19  24  10  19
GREENVILLE    67  86  65  86 /  12  23  16  21
GREENWOOD     65  85  65  86 /  17  30  18  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
292100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
356 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
RISKS WILL BE 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

FOR SATURDAY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF
50 TO 60 MPH AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE PRIMARY RISKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS COULD BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EC

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