Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Jackson, MS

836 
WGUS74 KJAN 181720
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

LAC029-107-MSC001-037-063-181830-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100818T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-ADAMS MS-
1220 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR
ADAMS...WESTERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND
CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES...

...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS ADAMS COUNTY 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...

AT 1214 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNING 
AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF FIVE TO 
SEVEN INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE GREATEST 
AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY...INCLUDING 
THE SIBLEY AREA...WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF EIGHT INCHES 
HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA... 
ESPECIALLY IN ADAMS COUNTY. IN ADAMS COUNTY...NUMEROUS STREETS ARE 
FLOODED...BRIDGES ARE UNDER WATER...AND MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. 
PLEASE CHECK WITH EMERGENCY OFFICIALS IN CASE EVACUATIONS ARE 
REQUESTED.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SLOCUM...DEER PARK...SPOKANE...FROGMORE...HELENA...COOTER POINT...RED
LICK...LORMAN...PINE RIDGE...WEST FERRIDAY...WATERPROOF... 
VIDALIA...FERRIDAY AND CLAYTON.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT 
TWO HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. 
RAINFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DECREASING AFTER 100 PM CDT.

RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES IN THREE HOURS CAN CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF NATCHEZ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9164 3106 9172 3121 9168 3131 9184
      3145 9180 3145 9172 3149 9179 3174 9169
      3175 9153 3188 9157 3194 9150 3186 9096
      3185 9096 3134 9100 3137 9132 3131 9146
      3123 9149 3122 9159 3105 9155 3098 9166

$$

COHEN

814 
WGUS74 KJAN 181748
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

LAC029-107-MSC001-037-063-181830-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100818T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-ADAMS MS-
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR
ADAMS...WESTERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND
CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES...

...SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS ADAMS 
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS...

AT 1239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. ESTIMATED 
RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. 
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES HAVE BEEN MEASURED OVER SOUTHERN 
ADAMS COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIBLEY...AND RADAR ESTIMATES SIMILAR 
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN THE CLAYTON AREA.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA... 
ESPECIALLY IN ADAMS COUNTY. IN ADAMS COUNTY...NUMEROUS STREETS ARE 
FLOODED...BRIDGES ARE UNDER WATER...AND MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. 
WATER IS FLOWING OVER ROBINS LAKE DAM NEAR SIBLEY...AND WHILE  
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DO NOT FEEL THAT A DAM FAILURE IS LIKELY...THEY 
ARE TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THE DAM AND PEOPLE 
LIVING BELOW THE DAM.

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS REPORT 
THAT THIS IS THE WORST FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN MANY 
YEARS...AND WORSE THAT OCCURRED IN HURRICANE GUSTAV IN 2008. PEOPLE 
SHOULD HEED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS OR ADVICE GIVEN BY EMERGENCY 
OFFICIALS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPOKANE...FROGMORE...HELENA...COOTER POINT...RED LICK...LORMAN...
MCNAIR...STAMPLEY...CHURCH HILL...CRANFIELD...STANTON...HAMBURG...
PINE RIDGE...WEST FERRIDAY...WATERPROOF...FERRIDAY...CLAYTON...
NATCHEZ AND FAYETTE

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS. WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9164 3106 9172 3121 9168 3131 9184
      3145 9180 3145 9172 3149 9179 3174 9169
      3175 9153 3188 9157 3194 9150 3186 9096
      3185 9096 3134 9100 3137 9132 3131 9146
      3123 9149 3122 9159 3105 9155 3098 9166

$$

AEG

538 
WGUS54 KJAN 181822
FFWJAN
LAC029-107-MSC001-037-063-182130-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100818T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
122 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...
  SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
  ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHEZ...
  WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 120 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED 
TO INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. ESTIMATED 
RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. 
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES HAVE BEEN MEASURED OVER SOUTHERN 
ADAMS COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIBLEY...AND RADAR ESTIMATES SIMILAR 
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN THE CLAYTON AREA.

SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS ADAMS 
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. IN ADAMS 
COUNTY...NUMEROUS STREETS ARE FLOODED...BRIDGES ARE UNDER WATER... 
AND MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. WATER IS FLOWING OVER ROBINS LAKE DAM 
NEAR SIBLEY...AND WHILE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DO NOT FEEL THAT A DAM 
FAILURE IS LIKELY...THEY ARE TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY 
OF THE DAM AND PEOPLE LIVING BELOW THE DAM.

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS REPORT 
THAT THIS IS THE WORST FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN MANY 
YEARS...AND WORSE THAN FLOODING IN HURRICANE GUSTAV IN 2008. PEOPLE 
SHOULD HEED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS OR ADVICE GIVEN BY EMERGENCY 
OFFICIALS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DEER 
PARK...SPOKANE...FROGMORE...HELENA...COOTER POINT...RED LICK...  
LORMAN...MCNAIR...STAMPLEY...CHURCH HILL...KINGSTON...CRANFIELD...  
STANTON...HAMBURG...PINE RIDGE...WEST FERRIDAY...WATERPROOF...  
CLAYTON AND FAYETTE

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT THREE 
HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9164 3106 9172 3121 9168 3131 9184
      3145 9180 3145 9172 3149 9179 3174 9169
      3175 9153 3188 9157 3194 9150 3186 9096
      3185 9096 3134 9100 3137 9132 3131 9146
      3123 9149 3122 9159 3105 9155 3098 9166

$$

COHEN

507 
WGUS74 KJAN 181921
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
221 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

LAC029-107-MSC001-037-063-182130-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100818T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-ADAMS MS-
221 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
ADAMS...WESTERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND
CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES...

...SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS ADAMS 
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS...

AT 216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. ESTIMATED 
RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. 
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES HAVE BEEN MEASURED OVER SOUTHERN 
ADAMS COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIBLEY...AND RADAR ESTIMATES SIMILAR 
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN THE CLAYTON AREA.

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA... 
ESPECIALLY IN ADAMS COUNTY. IN ADAMS COUNTY...NUMEROUS STREETS ARE 
FLOODED...BRIDGES ARE UNDER WATER...AND MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. 
WATER IS FLOWING OVER ROBINS LAKE DAM NEAR SIBLEY...AND WHILE  
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DO NOT FEEL THAT A DAM FAILURE IS LIKELY...THEY 
ARE TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THE DAM AND PEOPLE 
LIVING BELOW THE DAM. LOCATIONS AROUND SECOND CREEK NEAR SIBLEY ARE 
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. 

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS REPORT 
THAT THIS IS THE WORST FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY IN MANY 
YEARS...AND WORSE THAN FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GUSTAV 
IN 2008. PEOPLE SHOULD HEED ANY EVACUATION ORDERS OR ADVICE GIVEN BY 
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK
HAWK...RED LICK...LORMAN...MCNAIR...STAMPLEY...KINGSTON...SIBLEY...
CRANFIELD...STANTON...HAMBURG...GARDEN CITY...PINE RIDGE AND FAYETTE

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO 
HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9164 3106 9172 3121 9168 3131 9184
      3145 9180 3145 9172 3149 9179 3174 9169
      3175 9153 3188 9157 3194 9150 3186 9096
      3185 9096 3134 9100 3137 9132 3131 9146
      3123 9149 3122 9159 3105 9155 3098 9166

$$

COHEN

397 
WGUS74 KJAN 182032
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

LAC029-107-MSC001-037-063-182130-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0098.000000T0000Z-100818T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-JEFFERSON MS-FRANKLIN MS-ADAMS MS-
332 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR
ADAMS...WESTERN FRANKLIN AND WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND
CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED SINCE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. ISOLATED 
AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES HAVE BEEN MEASURED OVER SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTY 
IN THE VICINITY OF SIBLEY...AND RADAR ESTIMATES SIMILAR AMOUNTS OVER 
NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN THE CLAYTON AREA.

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNING AREA... 
ESPECIALLY IN ADAMS COUNTY. IN ADAMS COUNTY...NUMEROUS STREETS ARE 
FLOODED...BRIDGES ARE UNDER WATER...AND MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. 
WATER IS FLOWING OVER ROBINS LAKE DAM NEAR SIBLEY...AND WHILE  
EMERGENCY OFFICIALS DO NOT FEEL THAT A DAM FAILURE IS LIKELY...THEY 
ARE TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE THE SAFETY OF THE DAM AND PEOPLE 
LIVING BELOW THE DAM. LOCATIONS AROUND SECOND CREEK NEAR SIBLEY ARE 
ALSO LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RED
LICK...LORMAN...MCNAIR...STAMPLEY...KINGSTON...CRANFIELD...STANTON...
HAMBURG...GARDEN CITY AND FAYETTE.

MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT 
HOUR...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9164 3106 9172 3121 9168 3131 9184
      3145 9180 3145 9172 3149 9179 3174 9169
      3175 9153 3188 9157 3194 9150 3186 9096
      3185 9096 3134 9100 3137 9132 3131 9146
      3123 9149 3122 9159 3105 9155 3098 9166

$$

COHEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..LOCALLY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...

.UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS SINCE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE OVER SWRN MS AND PORTIONS OF NERN LA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 5. THE MORNING BURST OF RAINS HAS LIKELY
TOTALLED 6 TO 9 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS OF SWRN ADAMS COUNTY AND AN
EARLIER REPORT OF 5.2 INCHES WAS OBSERVED IN CLAYTON, LA. SOME
WEAKENING IN RADAR RETURNS NOTED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AS THE CENTER
SPINS VERY NEAR KHEZ AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD. LOOK FOR A MIGRATION OF
THE CENTER NEWD THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY REACHING THE SRN PORTIONS OF
THE JACKSON AREA EARLY THIS EVENING USING AN ADJUSTED RUC PROG.
WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS ALTHOUGH A LULL IN HEAVY RAIN
NEAR THE CENTER WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FILLING BACK IN
TONIGHT. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK PORTIONS OF THE WATCH IN THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF THE TRACK BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

MORNING RAOBS QUITE JUICED WITH 2.6+ PWATS AND LOWER 40 K INDEXES
WITH 20-25KTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW SO BANDS OF ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL BE
LIKELY FOR ERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY RETURN
KDGX RADAR TO NORMAL Z/R RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID HAZARDS AND REWORDING
CHANGES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THERE
REMAINS A DECENT RISK FOR 3+ INCH AMOUNTS FOR THE JACKSON METRO AREA
BEFORE THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT. UPDATES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE./40/

&&

.AVIATION...THE CENTER OF TD 5 REMNANTS WERE LOCATED GENERALLY OVER
KHEZ THIS MORNING. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS MOSTLY
AFFECTING THE KJAN/KHBG AREAS AND EVENTUALLY KMEI/KGTR. KGWO AND KGLH
WILL THE LESSER CHANCE FOR RAIN BUT SOME VCSH OR -RA STILL POSSIBLE.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA AT TIMES. GENERALLY
MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 20KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN./28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONCERNS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS
THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL AIRMASS MEANDER
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
CONCERNING MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER...A SLOW DRIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL MS.

THE LOW IS WEAK AND LIFT HAS BEEN TOO SMALL TO GENERATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
TO BE 2.7 INCHES AT JACKSON IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING. THE
LATEST WRF ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
CONVECTION ORGANIZE NWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55 AND AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFO MEMPHIS HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD. THE EXPIRATION TIME OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
THE WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL
WANE AFTER SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTN AND THURSDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER
NW/ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A LITTLE MORE HEATING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE. THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT
THE TROPICAL LOW IS BECOMING MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AND MOISTURE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS GREAT AS TODAY. WILL MENTION THE RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY IN THE HWO. /EC/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE REMNANTS (OF THE REMNANTS) OF TD 5 WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTH AND
EAST OUT OF OUR REGION FRIDAY. VARIOUS MODELS HAVE SMALL DIFFERENCES
WITH TIMING OF THE DEPARTURE...BUT THE DIFFERENCES WERE AS GREAT AS
YESTERDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH
SHOULD NOT BRING AS WIDESPREAD (OR GENERALLY AS HEAVY) RAIN TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS OUT THERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE HELD DOWN TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-55 ON FRIDAY...BUT HEATING UP POINTS WEST AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
NOSES BACK IN FROM THE WEST. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WOULD COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORIES STARTING UP AGAIN IN AT LEAST
DELTA ZONES ON FRIDAY.

BY SATURDAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANT TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINLY
EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...ALTHOUGH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. GFS-BASED MEX POPS LOOKED TOO HIGH CONSIDERING
PREDOMINANT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER SHOULD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A FRONT TO OUR
NORTH WILL BE HEADING THIS WAY BY LATE SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HELP AID CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. HEAT
WILL BE EXPANDING ON SATURDAY...BUT MANY AREAS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
KEEP HIGHS SHY OF THE UPPER 90S.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM BEGINS INCREASING BY SUNDAY. BY THIS
POINT THE COLD FRONT (MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION)
SHOULD BE COMING INTO PLAY. LAST NIGHT THERE WAS FAIR MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT COULD PUSH TO THE COAST BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY AND BRING SOME DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE CONSENSUS TREND WITH TONIGHT'S RUNS HAS BEEN TO
BACK OFF OF THE LATTER SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT MAINLY JUST WASHING
OUT OVER THE AREA AND MAYBE BRINGING A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR AT BEST.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL STILL HOLDS MORE FIRMLY TO THE SOLID COLD FRONT
IDEA...SO ALL HOPE NOT LOST YET. WITH THE STRONGER CONSENSUS
SCENARIO WE WOULD EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN...AND THEN DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...WE MIGHT HAVE
TO BE WATCHING OUT FOR SOME STRONG STORMS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE
HEAT...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. MEX TEMPS
LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AND I
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH. UNLESS THE SOLID FRONT SCENARIO CAN
MATERIALIZE...IT LOOKS LIKE A BUNCH MORE DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ARE IN THE CARDS. AT LEAST THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THE
HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE AS BAD COME NEXT WEEK. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  74  92  74 /  98  82  70  35
MERIDIAN      90  75  93  72 /  69  53  70  46
VICKSBURG     86  75  93  73 /  84  82  48  21
HATTIESBURG   91  76  94  74 /  73  46  72  37
NATCHEZ       85  74  88  73 /  98  52  68  23
GREENVILLE    94  75  95  75 /  72  55  30  12
GREENWOOD     89  75  94  74 /  79  66  48  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ019-025>030-032-
     033-035>038-040>045-047>050-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
541 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

LAZ009-016-023>026-MSZ019-025>033-035>066-072>074-191045-
EAST CARROLL-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
541 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE RISK FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
GREATER THAN FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...COULD BE NECESSARY DUE TO FLOODING.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-MSZ018-034-191045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-RICHLAND-BOLIVAR-WASHINGTON-
541 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1047 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W SIBLEY              31.38N 91.43W
08/18/2010  M7.00 INCH       ADAMS              MS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MEASURED AT 7.00 INCHES. 1 INCH OF
            RAIN FELL PRIOR TO 6 AM...AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
            BETWEEN 6 AM AND 1030 AM.

&&

ACOHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W SIBLEY              31.38N 91.43W
08/18/2010                   ADAMS              MS   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OF WATER ON AREA ON AREA ROADS...WITH SOUTHBOUND
            PORTION OF HIGHWAY 61 FLOODED. BRIDGES ARE WELL UNDER
            WATER. WATER HAS COME UP TO BLUFFS.

&&

ACOHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W SIBLEY              31.38N 91.43W
08/18/2010                   ADAMS              MS   PUBLIC

            6 INCHES OF WATER ON AREA ROADS...WITH SOUTHBOUND PORTION
            OF HIGHWAY 61 FLOODED. BRIDGES ARE WELL UNDER WATER.
            WATER HAS COME UP TO BLUFFS.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FERRIDAY                31.63N 91.56W
08/18/2010                   CONCORDIA          LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STREETS ARE CURRENTLY FLOODED IN FERRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
            HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING.

&&

ACOHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1113 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NATCHEZ                 31.55N 91.39W
08/18/2010                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXTENSIVE FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NATCHEZ
            AREA...AND ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

ACOHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1117 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SIBLEY                  31.38N 91.40W
08/18/2010                   ADAMS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXTENSIVE FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE SIBLEY AREA. YORK
            ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED. A BRIDGE IS UNDER WATER.

&&

ACOHEN