Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

298 
WGUS74 KJAN 210709
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

LAC029-107-MSC001-021-063-210745-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-100121T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TENSAS LA-CONCORDIA LA-JEFFERSON MS-CLAIBORNE MS-ADAMS MS-
109 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ADAMS...WESTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON
COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN TENSAS PARISHES...

AT 108 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
DETECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN 
DEVELOPING AND MOVING BACK INTO THE WARNED AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF OEN TO FOUR INCHES...HAVE 
OCCURRED IN THE PAST FIVE HOURS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
BRUIN...HELENA...COOTER POINT...ALCORN...ST. JOSEPH AND PORT GIBSON

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR 
THE NEXT HOUR..WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 9179 3165 9176 3162 9174 3164 9170
      3174 9169 3173 9165 3177 9160 3174 9154
      3180 9156 3190 9156 3209 9127 3199 9119
      3197 9114 3209 9088 3195 9094 3160 9137
      3149 9179

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS CONTINUE TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES THAT WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE TOO COOL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUING. FORECAST WAS ALSO UPDATED FOR THE LATEST
TORNADO WATCH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH THE DRY PUNCH MOVING EAST OVER THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE WAS HELPING DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW
THAT WAS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS STILL AGREE THAT
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR CWA
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND BEGIN TO DECREASE THE ACTIVITY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AT MID EVENING...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH 07Z BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE FORM THE WEST. CEILINGS WILL BE REDUCED AND
VISIBILITY LIKELY AS WELL IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CATEGORIES EXPECTED. MANY OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THEM TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL...NOT A GOOD NIGHT TIME FOR FLYING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010/

..SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE FOR
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...REFER TO LATEST SPC WW. A VERY DISTINCT AND NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING EWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND HELPING
TO ADD UVV TO THE MIX OF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY(8C 7-500MB LAPSE
RATES) AND SHEAR GETTING ALIGNED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OUR
POWERFUL 160KT 200MB JET CORE NOSING THROUGH SRN TX TOWARD THE GULF
COAST AND WILL ONLY SERVE TO INCREASE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION. AS A RESULT... EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS
REGENERATING OVER THE SWRN CWFA AND MOVING NEWD. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...AM KEEPING THE FFA IN PLACE
WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MOST RIPE FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOME
LOCALIZED FFW EASILY POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE BOX HOWEVER. WHILE QPF MAY
BE INDICATING A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE AN AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MS/NERN LA COULD GET UP TO 5
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT... IN LIGHT OF THE 275% NORMAL
PWATS AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION BEING OBSERVED IN PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO IN THE MIX TONIGHT...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW(999MB) IN NRN TX
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS SWRN AR AS 995MB BY 06Z ON LATEST RUC AND
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN AR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW CREATES
A MORE FAVORABLE 0-1KM SHEAR PROFILE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
SRN COUNTIES AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW NOCTURNAL TORNADOES...NOT
THAT UNCOMMON FOR PAST COOL SEASON SEVERE EPISODES. OUR BEST ESTIMATE
USING THE LOCAL WRF RUNS INDICATES BEST COMBINATION OF
SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR AN AXIS FROM PORT GIBSON TO RALEIGH TO
MERIDIAN SWD ABOUT 00-07Z.

THEN...A DRY MID LEVEL PUNCH(50KTS AT 700MB) ARRIVES FROM THE W LATE
TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG I-20 BRINGING A SHARP END TO THE CONVECTION AS
THE UPPER JET SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND PUSHES BEST DIVERGENT ZONE INTO AL.
A MODERATELY STRONG WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT DAY
THURSDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BEFORE MIDDAY.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND CONTINUED DRYING OUT. HAVE OPTED TO STAY ABOVE MAV MOS FOR
MAX TEMPS AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH FRIDAY./40/

LONGER TERM(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR
FRIDAY AHEAD OF LARGER AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING EAST AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
AND THROUGH OUR CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS...ALONG
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR...70-90 KNOTS OF 0-6KM...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THIS
I'LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE HWO.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY FOLLOWING SUITE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  A MUCH COOLER DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO AND SETTLE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL MID-JANUARY-LIKE CONDITIONS OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  73  44  64 / 100  13   5   2
MERIDIAN      57  74  44  66 / 100  34  10   2
VICKSBURG     57  72  42  65 / 100  10   2   3
HATTIESBURG   59  77  44  69 / 100  26   4   2
NATCHEZ       58  71  42  66 /  99   8   2   4
GREENVILLE    56  69  44  61 /  99  16   6   3
GREENWOOD     59  69  44  63 /  99  21  10   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>052.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-     023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/28/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-072>074-220215-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
805 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. RAINFALL WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...HAS BEEN REQUESTED TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ034>037-040>052-220215-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
805 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS. RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...HAS BEEN REQUESTED TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.

MSZ018-019-025>033-038-039-220215-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
805 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AROUND TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...HAS BEEN REQUESTED TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1126 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

MSZ047-210555-
WARREN MS-
1126 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED OVER YOKENA AT 1126 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXTENSIVE FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY AND AROUND VICKSBURG. THIS WILL
ONLY ADD TO THE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     HAIL             BOLTON                  32.35N 90.46W
01/20/2010  E1.75 INCH       HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL NEAR I-20

1128 PM     HAIL             RAYMOND                 32.26N 90.42W
01/20/2010  E1.75 INCH       HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL NEAR NATCHEZ
            TRACE AND HWY 467

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1131 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HAIL             RAYMOND                 32.26N 90.42W
01/20/2010  E1.00 INCH       HINDS              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT HINDS COMMUNITY COLLEGE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1132 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PURVIS                  31.14N 89.41W
01/20/2010                   LAMAR              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER MANY ROADS IN PURVIS

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     HAIL             CLINTON                 32.34N 90.33W
01/20/2010  E1.00 INCH       HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1143 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
01/20/2010                   WARREN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            VICKSBURG FIRE STATION NUMBER 5 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            VICKSBURG EVACUATED DUE TO FLOODING. TIPPING BUCKET GAGE
            SHOWS 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR.

&&