Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...A COMBINATION OF TRANSIENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
AND NUMEROUS TSRA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. FOR THIS EVENING...A SEA BREEZE INDUCED SURGE OF SHRA/TSRA
MOVING STEADILY NWD INTO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THROUGH 500 PM AND
SHOULD REACH THE I-20 REGION AROUND SUNSET AS IT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.
HAVE NOTED MICROBURST POTENITAL IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AND KTUP HAS
SEEN A MICROBURST BEFORE 300 PM. LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY RAINS OF
1-2 INCHES...PENNY SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50-60MPH ARE THE MAIN
RISKS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY NEWD AT
10-15MPH. DEVIANT STORM MOTIONS WITH ANY SLY COMPONENT WILL NEED
CLOSE MONITORING THIS EVENING.

BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY VERY ACTIVE IN THE
CONVECTION DEPARTMENT AS A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS IN SRN
LA AND TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. AT
THE SAME TIME...A STALLING SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE DROPS INTO THE MID
SOUTH AND STALLS FROM SRN AR INTO SRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL TSRA OUTFLOWS WHICH SHOULD SAG SWD INTO OUR NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE JUXTAPOSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT
IN STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND MODELS INDICATE POCKETS OF K INDEXES
IN THE L40S. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA IN
HWOJAN FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THIS PACKAGE AND HAVE BUMPED
UP OUR HAZARD PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY.

TEMPERATURE RANGE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS 68-71F
AND HIGHS APPROACHING 88-90F OR SO BEFORE RAINS DEVELOP. HAVE ADJUSTED
MAV MOS POPS UPWARD IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SRN HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOONS./40/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...LONG TERM(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THERE ARE
STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER EXIT
AND HIGHER POPS FOR OUR CWA INTO SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS THE DEEPER
SOLUTION OF THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF AND CLOSES OFF A LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY NOON FRIDAY.  A SURGE OF GREATER THAN TWO INCH PWATS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHICH WILL ADD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST
OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS MAINTAIN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PROLONG RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTH
WHILE OUR DELTA REGION WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A LARGE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES FROM THE
SW CONS. THE ADVERTISED WARM UP IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
DEPICT A STALLING COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MONDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OF OUR CWA TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER OUR CWA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN IN THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAN THE ECMWF AND RESULTS
IN A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
GFS MOS MAX TEMPS WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THE ECMWF HAVE CUT SEVERAL DEGREES OFF
MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
BE 6 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU EARLY EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY
LGT SLWY SFC WNDS. SCATTERED SHWRS/TS ARE XPCTD TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE 02-03Z. OCNL BRIEF
IFR CONDS INVOF THESE SHWRS AND STORMS LIKELY. VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU
THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD MVFR IN MIST
OCCURS 09-11Z. LGT SFC WINDS XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. MORE ROBUST AND
SLIGHTLY EARLIER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY STARTING AROUND
16-19Z. THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST A FEW HOUR LONGER INTO THURSDAY
EVENING BEFORE DYING OUT 03-06Z./BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  89  71  88 /  19  57  25  50
MERIDIAN      69  88  69  89 /  19  66  32  54
VICKSBURG     69  89  70  88 /  15  49  22  48
HATTIESBURG   70  87  72  89 /  35  74  33  68
NATCHEZ       69  87  72  88 /  30  64  23  68
GREENVILLE    70  91  70  91 /  10  35  21  32
GREENWOOD     69  90  69  90 /  11  37  22  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

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