Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

MAIN FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE WILL BE ON THE CONTINUED DAYTIME
CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ONGOING AMIDST 2000-3000J/KG SBCAPE AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY LAST AFTER SUNSET WHERE EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONVERGENCE PERSISTS. HOWEVER...ALL ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
9-10PM THIS EVENING. MODEL SUITE OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF TRY TO CONVEY SOME
RISING OF LOW TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN AGAIN SHOW SUBTLE LOWERING OF
20DM THIS EVENING AT THE H500 LEVEL. THIS TREND HOLDS TRUE FOR THE
H700 AND H850 LEVELS AS WELL. THE LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TODAY/S CONVECTION.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN-PLACE OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TOWARDS CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TAP WITH ~2000J/KG TO ~2500J/KG
SBCAPE...NO CIN...AND PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 NORTH TO 1.9 SOUTH.
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK (5.5-6C/KM) AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF ~25.
THUS...ONE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 30-40MPH. WILL MAKE MENTION OF THREAT IN HWO. CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIATE AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TOMORROW BY 1PM AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWING PEAK HEATING.

INCREASED THURSDAY MORNING LOWS BY A DEGREE OR SO WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME 70S AROUND DUE TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED H700-300 CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN AT THIS STAGE WITH THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW. 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN 31/0Z
ECMWF AND 15Z SREF. GFS POSITIONING LAGS THE ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD POCKET IN EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF/SREF ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE BY BRING THE LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND EVEN AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WENT AHEAD WITH A
BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR CONTINUITY. THURSDAY AGAIN WILL SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SOME DYNAMIC UPLIFT IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY PRESENT THERMODYNAMIC
LIFT WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000J/KG. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH WHERE EARLIER RAINS/CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTION LIMIT INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE
GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT RAIN SHOWER MAY
LINGER AROUND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW EDGES CLOSER TO ARKLAMISS REGION.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. INCREASED POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS
ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
INCREASED IN FUTURE UPDATES IF UPPER LOW PROGRESSION REMAINS SLOW.
MEX MOS TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE SHOOTING FOR THE MID 90S..THAT
MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE GIVEN NEAR-STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION AND HAVE CUT FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS BACK A BIT. IF UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE AS SUGGESTED BY GFS/ECMWF...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND COULD BE WET FOR MOST AREAS./JA/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE AFTN ACCOMPANIED BY LGT
SFC WNDS. ISOLD-SCT SHWRS/TS ARE XPCTD TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE 02-04Z. OCSNL MVFR/IFR CONDS
INVOF THESE SHWRS AND STORMS LIKELY.  VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE REST
OF THE EVENING BEFORE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD MVFR IN MIST OCCURS
09-11Z. CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE MEI/HBG/JAN
AREAS. LGT SFC WINDS XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD. /BK/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  69  91 /  22  29  16  24
MERIDIAN      67  90  68  89 /  24  37  24  37
VICKSBURG     68  91  70  91 /  22  22  12  21
HATTIESBURG   69  90  69  91 /  36  54  29  46
NATCHEZ       70  90  70  91 /  23  39  19  30
GREENVILLE    71  92  71  91 /  10  15   9  19
GREENWOOD     69  91  69  91 /   8  18  12  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

JA/BK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
022000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ040-012010-
CHICOT AR-WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER GASSOWAY AT 242 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHICOT COUNTIES...
AND NORTHERN EAST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

LAZ009-016-MSZ047-012055-
EAST CARROLL LA-WARREN MS-MADISON LA-
339 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER MANSFORD AT 339 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY...AND NORTH CENTRAL
MADISON AND SOUTH CENTRAL EAST CARROLL PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

MRM

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