Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
740 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.AVIATION...
TAF FOCUS MAINLY ON NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES. RADAR SHOWING LINE OF INTENSE TSRA JUST SOUTH
OF TERMINALS AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. KFWA WILL BE MOST IMPACTED
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL STRONG WIND
GUSTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE RESTRICTED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE LIFR FOR BRIEF INTERVALS GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THIS
COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING WITH SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY
NEARLY ON TOP OF KFWA. AT KSBN...MOST CONVECTION STAYING JUST SOUTH
OF TERMINAL BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY TRYING TO ORGANIZE JUST
WEST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW HOURS OF TSRA FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. MAIN FRONT TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHRA OR ISOLATED TSRA COULD FIRE ALONG IT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN TAF GIVEN ONGOING STRONGER CONVECTION. MVFR BR POSSIBLE LATE WITH
RAIN ENDING AND MOIST LOWER LEVELS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
LATEST VIS SAT LOOP SHOWING CU FIELD MARKING POSITION OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION HAS PUSHED DOWN INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN HALF OF
CWA STILL STRUGGLING TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION WHILE
SOUTHERN HALF DESTABILIZING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SB CAPE
EXCEEDING 3000J/KG. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILE FAVORING LINEAR
SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEST SVR THREAT...IF E/W ORIENTATION OF
THESE LINEAR SEGMENTS EVOLVES...PW STILL AROUND 2 INCHES WILL HAVE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS AS WELL. WILL STILL KEEP POPS
AT HIGH CHANCE BUT WILL GO WITH SCT WORDING SOUTHERN CWA AS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A GOOD BET BUT OVERALL COVERAGE STILL IN
DOUBT. FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WILL HANG ON TO A SMALL
CHANCE IN FAR SE CWA SUNDAY MORNING AS FRONT MAY BE SLOWER TO PUSH
THROUGH GIVEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER SHORT WAVE STILL
BACK UP IN NORTH DAKOTA. CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY AS COOLER DRIER
AIRMASS ACCOMPANIES SFC RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ONE MORE WARM MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...

LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH DETAILS NEXT WEEK
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL ALSO ALTER THE DETAILS SO
CONTINUING TO FOCUS ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC IDEA AND GENERALIZATION OF
THE GRIDS.

MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE AREA AND
PROVIDING A SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW OF MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES BUT NO STRONG
FORCING SEEN FOR TUESDAY SO WILL LEAVE DRY ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES
FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING OF
THIS FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION AND MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH TIMING
AND PLACEMENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THESE PERIODS. 00Z ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH
ENTIRE AREA WITH NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY. PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION
FOR NOW WITH STRONG RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. DEEPENING EAST COAST TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR THIS
FASTER SOLUTION BUT WILL AWAIT MORE AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND MOVE
THROUGH UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR FWA AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS ALSO
FAVORING SOME EARLY MORNING FOG. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT.
MI...NONE.
OH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
431 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

INZ006-007-MIZ077>081-250845-
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE
431 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 96 TO 99 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003>005-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-250845-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-
FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-
HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...
GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
431 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010 /331 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 90 TO 93 WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 98 TO 102 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-250845-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
431 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>