Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
717 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ATTM AT BOTH TERMINALS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SOME MVFR STCU BACK OVER NORTHERN
MO...EASTERN IA...EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL.
AT THE SAME TIME REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO...WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA TONIGHT.

AT SBN...LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AND WITH THE WINDSHIFT TO NORTHWEST DON/T SEE MUCH OF A
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP. DO SEE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AFTER ABOUT
4Z FOR SOME OF THAT UPSTREAM MVFR STCU TO BRIEFLY IMPACT THE TAF
SITE BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WORKS IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

AT FWA...WHILE A STRAY POP UP SHRA/TSRA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THIS EVENING...THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS QUITE LOW AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT THIS SITE AND HAVE
INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SHRAS IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALONG
WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS. CAN/T RULE OUT THUNDER WITH ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES ARRIVE...BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE CB MENTION AT
THIS TIME AS TIMING OF ARRIVAL DOESN/T FAVOR MUCH THUNDER. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.

FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY EXPECT JUST A FEW CU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

WINDS HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED NORTHWEST AT SBN AND WILL GRADUALLY
BACK WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AROUND 10KTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 15KTS
TO SLOWLY VEER WESTERLY 10-15KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AT FWA. FOR
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G25KTS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010/

UPDATED...
NEGATIVES TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION APPEAR TO BE WINNING OUT AS PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CONT TO MIX OUT THIS AFTN DIMINISHING FORCING
MECHANISMS. THUS HAVE REMOVED REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH FROM OUR
CWA AND CONTD TREND OF LOWERING POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CWA IN
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY.
TRAILING CDFNT MOVG THROUGH MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
CWA OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CDFNT OVER IL IS NOT AS
UNSTABLE AS IN OUR AREA DUE TO LINGERING AFFECTS OF MORNING
CONVECTION. MODIFIED TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM SBN THIS AFTN ALSO SHOWING
WK CAPPING AROUND 6000FT OVER OUR AREA. THIS AND LACK OF A FOCUSING
MECHANISM HAS PREVENTED DEEP CONVECTION IN OUR CWA MUCH OF THE DAY.
GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES, HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO CHC RANGE FOR THIS
AFTN/EVE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DVLP WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SVR WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND ALSO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER
VALUES POOLING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. HWVR, GIVEN LACK OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT AND QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AHEAD
OF TONIGHT'S FRONT, HAVE DECIDED TO DROP AREAL FLOOD WATCH. TRIMMED
WRN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH #167 EARLIER, AND AS APPEARS BEST
FORCING MECHANISM ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVG INTO SERN INDIANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL OH ATTM, WILL PRBLY BE ABLE TO DROP REMAINDER
EARLY.

LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE IN THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FROM THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY WX. CAA WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS WITH WITH HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE CWA IN
THE U60S. COOL TEMPS AND FAIR WX SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GRTLKS.

PERSISTENT WRN TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO THE WRN GRTLKS/MS
VALLEY BY MONDAY AS RIDGING DVLPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CLOSE OFF IN OUR REGION BRINGING A GOOD CHC OF RAIN MON/TUE.
ECMWF/GFS CONT TO HAVE POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY AND CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THUS, WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TIMING OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE AREA STILL LOOKS BEST FOR MON-MON
NGT, SO DID BUMP POPS UP A BIT MORE IN THESE PERIODS.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED/THU. AGAIN
GFS/ECMWF HAVE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES. LEANED AGAINST FAST
BIASED GFS AND TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF WITH TEMPS BLO 12Z MEX
FORECASTS...HWVR GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES LEFT POPS OUT OF WED FCST
AND STARTED OUT THE NEW DAY7 DRY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-142330-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
724 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010 /624 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREA RIVERS MAY BE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-142330-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
724 PM EDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

ARNOTT

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