Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EDT WED APR 7 2010

.UPDATE...
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS EXITED THE WATCH AREA. SOME REFLECTIVITY
SIGNATURES OF HIGHER WIND POTENTIAL BUT NOTHING HAS BEEN MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND IN AREA OF CAPPING STILL BEING NOTED ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS. LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST AND MAY HAVE SOME
STRONGER WINDS GUSTS HERE AND THERE BUT MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO KEEP CAT POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LINE...BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL NEED ANOTHER UPDATE TO TONE THINGS DOWN FURTHER.
WEST OF THE LINE...SCT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO STAY TOGETHER.
LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THIS AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
QUITE WORKED OVER AND IN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS. COLD
FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL BE THE LAST
CHANCE FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO FORM FOR WESTERN AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH SCT SHOWERS GIVEN COVERAGE ATTM AND HOLD THROUGH
THE EVENING. AS WITH EASTERN AREAS...UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW
HOURS BUT WANTED TO AT LEAST CLEAN GRIDS UP SOMEWHAT WITH DROPPING
OF THE WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...
LOW PRESSURE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NE SINCE LAST ISSUANCE BUT MAKING A
HEADING TOWARDS NORTHWEST INDIANA. RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
AFFECT THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER...THE MAIN ISSUE THIS PD WILL BE
CIGS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE DRY SLOT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED. EXPECT THIS TO MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE AT
KSBN AND A LONGER STAY AT KFWA UNTIL LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER TO THE
NE WHERE FLOW WILL THEN VEER AND BECOME NW. LL FLOW AT THAT TIME WILL
FINALLY ALLOW THE IFR CIGS SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS TODAY TO
MOVE INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST AS FAR
AS TIMING OF LOW CIGS AS CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS RATHER LOW WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES AND MODELS NOT HANDLING THE LOW CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY VERY WELL AT ALL.

WILL MONITOR FOG TRENDS FOR ADDITION TO TAFS...BUT LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS UPSTREAM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM EDT WED APR 7 2010/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

SFC LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL IL WITH A STNRY FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM
THE LOW INTO SE MI. LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE STNRY FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND OUTFLOW FROM BANDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE LIMITED HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
TODAY...HWVR AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTN WK INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPES 500-1000J/KG SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTMS TO CONT TO DVLP LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. WK
INSTABILITY AND RATHER SMALL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE. HWVR, 70KT 0-6KM
SHEAR EVIDENT ON WOLCOTT PROFILER SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPCLY
S-SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. ALSO
WITH STNRY FRONT OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A BOUNDARY TO ENHANCE
STORM INFLOW ALONG WITH BACKING FLOW AND INCRSG 0-3KM HELICITY
EVIDENT ON WOLCOTT PROFILER, A THREAT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
AND TORNADOES EXISTS...HENCE RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH FOR SW
PORTION OF CWA. AS LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, CAA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AND BRING AN END TO THE TSTM THREAT.
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW...AIDED BY DEEP MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THU. TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE L40S NW
TO L50S SE AND A BRISK NW WIND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. 1000-850MB
MODEL THICKNESS FCSTS SUGGESTS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE CWA ON THU/THU EVE...HWVR MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BLO DGZ... SO EXPECT PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE
RAIN... THOUGH SOME SLEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SCT SHOWERS SHOULD END THU NGT AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA AND DIURNAL HEATING WANES. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD CONT OVERNIGHT SO
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS THU NGT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FCST GIVEN RELATIVELY GOOD RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE / 12 HR 120M 7-5H
HEIGHT RISES...AS INITIAL FULL LATITUDE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE
REGION WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. STILL RATHER COOL THERMAL PROFILES ON FRI
ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH...WITH MODELS AGREEING ON 85T NEAR -5C BY
18Z FRI. MIXING FROM THERE WOULD YIELD MID/UPPER 40S FOR
HIGHS...WHICH IS A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN INHERITED FCST
HIGHS. AS A RESULT...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN 1-3 DEGREES FOR NOW WHICH
MATCHES UP WELL WITH LATEST MEXMOS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
SFC-85H RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
TROUGHINESS ACROSS WESTERN NOAM. ONLY SLIGHT CONCERN FOR ANY SHRAS
WOULD BE SUN INTO MON MORNING. UPPER VORTEX NEAR THE ALEUTIANS/GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SINK SEWD INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK. SHRTWV
ENERGY EMANATING OUT OF THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE NRN
LAKES...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWD INTO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BY SUN/MON. WILL STAY DRY DURING THIS TIME GIVEN LACK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE GOMEX MOISTURE RETURN AND BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPING THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO
REACH TO NEAR 70F OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID/UPPER 70S POSSIBLE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...WEISSER
UPDATE...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
456 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010

INZ003>008-012>016-MIZ077>081-080900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...
HILLSDALE
456 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010 /356 AM CDT WED APR 7 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ009-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-080900-
DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-
PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
456 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-080900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
456 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

JC

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