Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...ZONE ISSUANCE WILL BE DELAYED WITH WATCH ISSUANCE ANTICIPATED...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ACROSS EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL RACES EAST.

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOUND FROM MUCH OF ILLINOIS INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORNING CONVECTION DID LITTLE
TO STIFFLE DAYTIME HEATING AND MSTR TRANSPORT TODAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PRIMED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 18Z SOUNDING FROM KILX SHOWED A GENERALLY UNCAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WITH OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LI'S PUSHING -11 C.
COORDINATION WITH SPC AND NEW SWOMCD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HWO WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE
THE WORDING...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS. GRIDS NOW REFLECT
LIKELY POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH A MENTION OF SVR WESTERN AREAS
FROM 23Z TO 03Z AND EXPANDING EAST THROUGH 6Z. CONVECTION MAY END
BEFORE THEN BUT CAN DEAL WITH LATER WITH UPDATES. NO CHANGES MADE
BEYOND 6Z INTO TOMORROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IF PORTIONS OF IOWA CAN RECOVER QUICK ENOUGH.

ON SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA..WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO SE/E AREAS. WILL
LET MID SHIFT FINE TUNE CHANCES AS CONVECTION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
MAY PLAY A ROLE IN EVOLUTION OF TOMORROWS PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A
CHANCE FOR STORMS AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
VERY WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER WITH
A WARM AND ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ROUNDS OF STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONT UNDULATES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.4
TO 1.8 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE MODEST CHANGES WILL BE MADE...OVERALL IDEA WILL REMAIN
INTACT FOR 18Z TAFS. MAIN SHOW WILL LIKELY BE TOWARDS OR AFTER 00Z
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION THROUGH 00Z FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TEMPO CONTINUE AT KSBN WITH
SOME SPEED UP OF ARRIVAL TIME TO CLOSER TO 00Z BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF IOWA CONVECTION. FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED
AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE DEFINED. NO CHANGES BEYOND
12Z WITH MESOSCALE PROCESSES TONIGHT DICTATING WHAT MAY OCCUR
TOMORROW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

INZ006>009-017-018-024>027-032>034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-191800-
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-
WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...
NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS...LIMA
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO TO
COLDWATER LINE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003>005-012>016-020-022-023-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-078-191800-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-
KOSCIUSKO-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-CASS MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS
150 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010 /1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE APPROACHING
WESTERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM EDT AND CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 70 MPH. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO TO
COLDWATER LINE ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FISHER

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