Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
421 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS AMPLE
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN MOIST/WARM AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THIS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.  WILL
START ZFP WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO CAPTURE THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...AND CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
MORE WIDESPREAD HAZARD...HEAVY RAINFALL.  MBE VELOCITIES CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WEAK AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3-5 INCHES.  WITH PRIMARY BATCH OF RAINFALL STILL JUST NOW ENTERING
THE CWA FROM THE WEST...FULLY EXPECT SOME FLS/FLWS TO BE NEEDED INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

SLOWED DOWN PRECIP EXIT JUST A TAD TONIGHT GIVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
TRENDS...WHICH LEAVES LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF THROUGH
THE EVENING TAPERING TO CHANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  GIVEN PRETTY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS WELL AS
SATELLITE/NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS...EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT FOR SOME FOG FORMATION.  UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REMAIN
ELEVATED WELL BEHIND THE OVERHEAD CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH SUGGESTS
ANY BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  FLOW OFF THE LAKE
SHOULD HELP DROP DOWNWIND AREAS INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS...BUT LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN LATER CLEARING
AND LIMITED DRYING.

MUCH QUIETER DAY EXPECTED IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ON TUESDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL ABOUT 10F FROM TODAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT REALLY
DON/T DROP ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.  T85 AROUND +15C INDICATES LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
WILL BE IN REACH. THE DRY PUSH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AND SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME FAIR WX CU BY AFTERNOON.

FAST ZONAL FLOW BRINGS THE NEXT RIPPLE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  30-40KT JET AT H85 PRECEDING THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE IT/S NOSE OVER THE CWA TOWARDS MORNING.  GIVEN THIS
SETUP...AND THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...COULD CERTAINLY SEE CONVECTION
FROM ALONG THE H85 WARM FRONT OVERHEAD...OR FORM UPSTREAM CLOSER THE
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER WAVE /AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT/ AND MOVE INTO THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER
FLOW.  LOWS LOOK MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS...ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM GRIDS TODAY WITH EMPHASIS ON NEAR
TERM THUNDERSTORMS. QUICK LOOK AT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON FINER SCALE DETAILS. STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING WITH OUR AREA STILL ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGEST
FLOW. NUMEROUS WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND
EACH WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN. FOR CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
KEPT WITH PREVIOUS IDEA IN GRIDS WITH TIMING OF WAVES AND BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN THU AND AGAIN SAT. WED WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT UPSTREAM AND ITS
TRACK THROUGH GREAT LAKES WED. THUS LOW CHANCE POPS REASONABLE FOR
NOW. STRONGER WAVE PROGGED ON THU WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY THEN
ANOTHER WAVE SAT WHICH COULD GET IN HERE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TRIED
TO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND KEPT PCPN OUT OF
FORECAST BUT WEAK WAVES STILL POSSIBLE AND UNCERTAINTY HIGH IN
THESE PERIODS. KEPT TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF WAVES AND BOOST
TEMPS OR CLOUD COVER COULD REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MCV FEATURES AND
KEEP TEMPS COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS/...

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
ONE LOOK AT THE EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR SUGGESTS HANDLING THE
SITUATION WITH A TSRA TEMPO GROUP. WILL DO SO AT BOTH TERMINALS
THROUGH 22Z AND COULD SEE THE NEED FOR MORE TSRA MENTION FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 HRS AT FWA GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. WILL CARRY IFR VSBYS IN THE TSRAS AS THEY HAVE BEEN
ROBUST. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

THIS EVENING...CLEARING SKIES WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN FROM THE WEST
AND GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
ONLY SLOW LLEVEL DRYING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT LLEVEL WINDS...EXPECT
FOG FORMATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CARRY MVFR VSBYS AT THIS
POINT AND SEE HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...HOWEVER.

VFR DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW POP UP CU.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING 5-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS 5KTS AT
SBN ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5KTS AT FWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025-011700-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1257 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 /1157 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS PERIOD. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

ARNOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE OTTAWA             41.00N  84.01W
05/31/2010                   PUTNAM             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO THE EAST SIDE OF A TWO STORY
            HOME. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000617

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

INZ015-016-022>027-032>034-OHZ016-024-025-312045-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-BLACKFORD IN-CASS IN-FULTON IN-GRANT IN-HUNTINGTON
IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-MIAMI IN-PUTNAM OH-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS
IN-
346 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 15 TO
20 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE SO BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VERY ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH COULD OCCUR INFREQUENTLY AND
QUICKLY IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR
QUICKLY AND WATER MAY ALSO RISE QUICKLY IN SMALLER STREAMS..CREEKS
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES. DO NOT PLAY OR ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY
FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS AS WELL.

GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS
SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL ANY STORM
HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4069 8445 4073 8445 4073 8479 4032 8481
      4033 8521 4040 8522 4039 8586 4058 8588
      4058 8636 4105 8603 4107 8570 4101 8568
      4093 8535 4093 8481 4098 8475 4099 8386
      4065 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 226DEG 18KT 4071 8529

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
348 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAYPOOL                41.13N  85.88W
05/31/2010                   KOSCIUSKO          IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE UPROOTED AND FELL ON A BUILDING. NUMEROUS TREE
            LIMBS DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000618

SAW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E GRANGER             41.75N  86.10W
05/31/2010  M3.10 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN TOTAL BETWEEN 2PM AND 4PM...WITH MAJORITY FALLING
            IN 45 MINUTES. STILL RAINING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000619

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
421 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

INZ005>009-016>018-025-MIZ080-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-312115-
ALLEN IN-BRANCH MI-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-ELKHART IN-FULTON OH-HENRY
OH-HUNTINGTON IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-LAGRANGE IN-NOBLE IN-PAULDING OH-PUTNAM
OH-STEUBEN IN-WHITLEY IN-WILLIAMS OH-
421 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...MOVING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL BECOME SEVERE SO BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. VERY ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH COULD OCCUR
INFREQUENTLY AND QUICKLY IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS MAY OCCUR
QUICKLY AND WATER MAY ALSO RISE QUICKLY IN SMALLER STREAMS..CREEKS
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES. DO NOT PLAY OR ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY
FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND
LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS
SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL ANY STORM
HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4099 8480 4093 8481 4093 8535 4101 8568
      4106 8570 4106 8602 4125 8607 4176 8543
      4177 8483 4170 8478 4171 8387 4099 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 238DEG 20KT 4137 8534