Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
127 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

.NEAR TERM...
WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SE
PARTS OF THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR A BIT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND OVER THE PAST HOUR SEVERAL CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A HARTFORD CITY TO TOLEDO
LINE. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WHILE
SFC BASED LI'S ARE RANGING FROM -5 TO -7 C...OVERALL WIND FIELDS
AND SHEAR ARE PRETTY BLEAK. AS A RESULT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
SEEN WITH ANY ACTIVITY AND ANY MERGERS OR CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
HOLD THE CORES WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. BACK TO
THE NW...INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BUT IS BELOW ZERO. DEWPT BOUNDARY
MAKING ITS WAY SE THROUGH CHICAGO AREA WITH REPORTS OF VIRGA. NO
SIG CONVERGENCE WITH THIS AREA SO DOUBT MUCH WILL HAPPEN BUT
SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FORECAST
HIGHS. MAY NEED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KSBN AND MORE THAN LIKELY AT KFWA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO FINALLY BE STIRRING
UP STORMS...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN SE OF KFWA AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THERE. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME AREAS OF CU AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE
AROUND SO NO SIG CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010/

SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULTIES CONT THROUGH THE PD WRT TO SUBTLE MESOSCALE
PROCESSES/INFLUENCES ON CONV POTENTIAL TDA AND FRI WITHIN LARGER
SCALE STEEPENING NRLY FLW REGIME. VRY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA HAD OCCURRED
THIS AM ALG AND E OF A KOEB TO KMIE LINE AND LIKELY COLLOCATED
W/STALLING DENSITY CURRENT THAT AROSE OUT OF NRN LWR MI CONVN LAST
EVENING. DEEP MID LVL TROUGH DROPPING SWD THROUGH NF THIS AM WILL
NUDGE WARM MID LVL RIDGE BACK W. SECONDARY SW SPINNING OFF SE CANADA
LOW AND ASSOCD WK HGT FALLS THIS AFTN SHLD PROMOTE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVN LT MORNING INTO MID AFTN SE HALF AS HGT FALLS
INDUCE BACKED LL FLW AND GREATER MASS FLUX ALG IMPLIED SFC TROUGH
REFLECTION. GOING POPS STILL FIT THE BILL ALTHOUGH DROPPED MENTION
ALTOGETHER SW MI/NW IN THIS AFTN W/MARINE LYR ADVTG INLAND. LTL
IMPACT ON TEMPS YDA EVEN W/EARLY CU DVLPMNT AND GOT BURNED GOING BLO
GUIDANCE. THUS WILL BUMP THIS AFTN AND GO THE OTHER WAY W/MAX TEMPS
AOA GUIDANCE.

FLW ALOFT VEERS FURTHER INTO FRI AS VORTEX OVR ERN CANADA DROPS SWD
INTO THE NW ATL. IN FACT HIGHRES ERLY BNDRY LYR FLW SUGGESTS LK ERIE
LK BNDRY WILL ADVT WELL INLAND WWD FRI AFTN. IMPROVING SFC BASED
THETA-E OVR INLAND AREAS...ESP SE HALF OF CWA ONCE AGAIN...MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO POP ISOLD TSRA AGAIN IN THE AFTN BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH YET IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BREAK AWAY FM PRIOR DRY FCST.
TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN W/LTL CHG IN THERMAL FIELDS.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGE WARRANTED IN THE LONG TERM GIVEN COMPLICATED
UPPER FLOW STEMMING FROM POOR MODEL CONFIDENCE IN HANDLING OF
EASTERN PAC/WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING AND SUBSEQUENT FLOW
FLATTENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WAVE SPEED/STRUCTURE/AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE VARIES AMONG OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
IT WILL BE A FEW MORE MODEL CYCLES UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS IS MET
GIVEN THE UPPER LOW STILL RESIDING OVER THE EASTERN PAC AND OUTSIDE
OF BETTER RAOB SAMPLING. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS WELL
FORECAST...IT REMAINS THE FINER DETAILS BEYOND DAY 4 THAT ARE STILL
MUDDLED. HENCE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE BEYOND DAY 4 WITH PREVIOUS
POPS/WX RETAINED. OTHERWISE...STAUNCH UPPER RIDGING WILL OFFER A
WARM SAT/SUN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/TS ON SUN GIVEN BACKDOOR RIDGING SUPPORTING
INCREASED LL MOISTURE PER EASTERLY TRANSPORT...WHICH HAS BEEN
PROGGED CONSISTENTLY. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF ENOUGH MID LEVEL
COOLING IS ATTAINABLE...WHICH LOOKS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTER BASICALLY OVERHEAD. HAVE SIDED STRONG TO THE ECMWF
GIVEN PREFERENCE IN FLOW/THERMAL HANDLING POST FRONTAL
THUR-FRI...WHICH SUPPORTS A SLOWER RIDGE BREAKDOWN.

SAT-SUN...SFC-UPPER RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO
THE 80S PER DEEP MIXING FIELDS IN AMPLE INSOLATION. HAVE BUMPED
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN LINE WITH MOS TRENDS. AS STATED
ABOVE...INCREASING LL MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE WEAK
INFLUENCE FROM THE SE CONUS WEAKNESS INTO THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS SUN AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP REMAINS VERY LOW.

MON-WED...FROPA EXPECTED IN THE MON PERIOD WITH A DECENT SHOT AT
PRECIP GIVEN RATHER STRONG FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH AMPLE
LL MOISTURE. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE GIVEN MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
SHEAR PROFILES. WAVE TIMING AND MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES FROM
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL DICTATE PRECIP CHANCES AND THESES FACTORS
ARE HIGHLY UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT. CONTINUED CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH TEMPS GIVEN CONCERNS ON PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE-WED AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS.
HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL ACTIVE PATTEN MAY BE IN STORE AND THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF RIDGE FLATTENING AND THE EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWARD EXTENT THE NEGATIVE THETA-E PUSH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...FISHER
NEAR TERM...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
333 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-280900-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
333 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 /233 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A COLDWATER TO MONTICELLO LINE. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-280900-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
333 AM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 /233 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     HAIL             VAN WERT                40.87N  84.58W
05/27/2010  E0.25 INCH       VAN WERT           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN REPORTED IN VAN WERT

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000588

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
157 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

OHZ025-271830-
ALLEN OH-
157 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELIDA...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIMA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH
PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORMS...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW AREAS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LIMA...
  CONANT...
  KEMP...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4068 8422 4068 8428 4081 8433 4086 8419
      4086 8417 4074 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 324DEG 8KT 4077 8422

FISHER