Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
WILL NEED A PRE-FIRST PERIOD GROUP TO HANDLE CURRENT WATCH IN EFFECT
OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE ON COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORTEX IN NORTHERN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL BECOME MORE OCCLUDED WITH TIME AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP INTO
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY
BUILDING INTO MONTANA TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS ALREADY FEATURING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL. EXPECT THIS
DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND WOULD FAVOR THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS OFFERED BY GUIDANCE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED ACCORDINGLY.&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE WEST CONUS COAST ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT A DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN
500 MB ANALOG SIGNALS. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE MAIN TROF LATE WEDNESDAY AND REACHING THE
MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE EARLIER GFS ENSEMBLES WERE NOT VERY
BULLISH ON THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN ALSO SUPPORTED THIS SOLUTION OF A TROF
REACHING THE AREA ABOUT FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...IT LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.  THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REST OF
THIS PERIOD DRY. HAVE REJECTED THE NAM/WRF THAT EJECTS A WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT INTO INDIANA WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER PREVIOUS RECENT SOLUTIONS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...FAVOR THE WARMER OPERATIONAL MEX OVER THE GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES GIVEN THE CURRENT WARM PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...
ISOLATED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES KFWA. WILL INCLUDE ONE HOUR PERIOD OF VCTS TO COVER THIS
THEN EXPECT BOTH SITES TO HAVE SCT/BKN DIURNAL CU REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FRONT. DECOUPLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5KTS. VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...LOGSDON
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LOGSDON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
428 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-160830-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
428 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 /328 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A HILLSDALE MICHIGAN TO
MARION INDIANA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-160830-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
428 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 /328 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN AND
LAPORTE COUNTY SHORELINES TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN AND LAPORTE
COUNTY SHORELINES MONDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

INZ005-008-016-017-151745-
ELKHART IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-NOBLE IN-WHITLEY IN-
1246 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

AT 1242 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SYRACUSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  TRI-LAKES...
  COLUMBIA CITY...
  NORTH WEBSTER...
  ALBION...
  CHURUBUSCO...
  CROMWELL...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4135 8520 4133 8520 4127 8526 4127 8531
      4123 8532 4109 8547 4140 8585 4153 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 302DEG 20KT 4140 8570

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