Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH THUR NIGHT

POTENT NORTHERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT WITH COOLER/MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. RELOADING OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WAA
EXPECTED BACK INTO THE REGION THUR NIGHT PER A POTENT REFLECTED LLJ.
THETA-E SURGE AT THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THUR NIGHT GIVEN MOISTURE ADV AT THE BASE OF STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE NAM GIVEN PREFERRED
THERMAL AND MOMENTUM FIELDS...WITH AID OF THE LOCAL WRF.

TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE WILL EXIT THE
REGION WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. DRYING LOW/MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING
LOWER 40S WHERE DECOUPLING OCCURS.

THUR...WEAK SFC RIDGING WITH HEIGHT RISING ENSUING WILL SUPPORT A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
MAY SUPPORT SOME CIRRUS BY AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HIGH BASED
DIURNAL CU POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. NW AREAS WILL SEE MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AREAS NEAR LK MI LIKELY TO RESIDE IN THE 50S
AS IN NAM 2M TEMP PROGS.

THUR NIGHT...LL PRESSURE FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS VORTEX WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOCTURNAL LLJ AS BL FLOW DECOUPLES. MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE BASE
OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER AN ADVECTING RESIDUAL EML
WILL SUPPORT SHRA/TS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MIDWEST BY
EVENING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NE INTO THE FA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACTIVITY. CERTAINLY PLENTY OF FORCING INDICATED IN GUIDANCE WITH THE
NAM PROGGING 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF CROSS ISENTROPIC NEARLY SATURATED
FLOW AOA H85. HAVE ADJUSTED POP WX GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. LOWS SHOULD BE
REACHED EARLIER IN THE PERIOD GIVEN AN EXPECTED RESPONDING WIND
FIELD PER PRESSURE FALLS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FCST CNTRD ON NXT UPSTREAM SW NOW INTO THE PAC NW COAST THIS AFTN.
DOWNSTREAM LEAD SW WILL ACCELERATE ENE SHRT TERM W/FAIRLY STG
CAA/NEG THETA-E SURGE SHRT TERM AND SIGNIFIES THE PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY FOR FRI W/DEGREE OF LL MSTR RTN IN ASSOCN/W DEEPENING
SFC CYCLONE LIFTING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS.

12Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE RUNS COUNTER TO SFC OBS ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
W/A COHERENT LACK OF MSTR AND READILY EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS ACRS
TX/OK AND JUST ABT EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR THAT MATTER.

THUS ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
W/APCH OF SFC CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT WMFNT FRI AM/CDFNT FRI
AFTN...LIMITED RTN MSTR INVOF OF TRIPLE POINT WILL CURTAIL OVERALL
SVR THREAT. IN ADDN...TIMING ISSUES STILL REMAIN W/AGAIN A NOD GIVEN
TWD DEEPER/SLOWER SYS EVOLUTION. COMBINATION OF ABV FACTORS SUGGESTS
STANDING PAT W/PREV POP DELINEATION FRI/FRI NIGHT. DRAMATIC COOLDOWN
FOLLOWING WITHIN INTENSE POST FNTL CAA WING FRI NIGHT/SAT. IN FACT
IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LK RESPONSE  WITHIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLW W/SOME LOCALES ESP N/NW NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S
W/TEMP DEPARTURES OF 20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL XPCD AS SFC RIDGE BLDS
TWD THE OH VALLEY FOR SAT NIGHT. CLRG AND PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS
FVRS FROST CWA WIDE W/DRAINAGE LOW LYING AREAS DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING. STILL TOO EARLY FOR A FREEZE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT AT THE
LATEST XPC ONE TO GO OUT TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE DEEP WRN TROUGHING REDVLPS EARLY NXT WEEK W/CONCURRENT
RAPID DOWNSTREAM MODERATION XPCD AND WILL HOLD FIRM W/PRIOR GRIDDED
EFFORT FOR DY6 AND EXTEND INTO NEW DY7. DEEPENING RTN FLW BY THAT POINT
SHLD FINALLY YIELD SIG LL THETA-E POOLING S OF ACTIVE W-E FNTL ZONE
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON. ELEVATED COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW
FA...WITH SOME LIGHTNING OBSERVED EARLIER. SFC TROUGH LOCATED FROM
JYM TO MONTICELLO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST HELPING TO FORCE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED CB MENTION AT THE
TERMINALS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO
RESPOND ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
A VCTS AT FWA AS BEST THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
EAST. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
CELLS. THINGS WILL DRY OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER DRY NW LL FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2010

INZ003>009-012>017-020-022-MIZ077>081-061100-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-WHITE-CASS IN-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
COLDWATER...HILLSDALE
543 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2010 /443 PM CDT WED MAY 5 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE GREATEST THREAT.

FROST IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ018-023>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-061100-
ALLEN IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-
WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT WAYNE...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...BRYAN...
WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...
OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
543 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE GREATEST THREAT.

FROST IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061100-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
543 PM EDT WED MAY 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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