Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
328 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE WITHIN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE WESTERN RIDGING HOLDS STEADY
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING W/CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG PRE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SPORTING MLCAPES AOA
3000J/KG. BETTER BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS APPEARS CONFINED TO
NORTHERN AREAS AS STRONGER MID LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE CONFINED
CLOSER TO UPPER WAVE NORTH OF THE LAKES AND THIS AREA SHOULD SEE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT AS
LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES EAST WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.
DISCRETE CELLS POPPING UP SOUTH OF THIS MAIN LINE SO WILL KEEP SCT
POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

SCT STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING TO FOLLOW AS A MUCH MORE PLEASANT AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.  NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER H85
TEMPS FALLING TO 13C ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AIR SEEING DEWPOINTS FALL
STEADILY INTO THE LOW 60S FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY NEAR 80 INTO THE LOW 80S SOUTH WITH COOL LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES. THE EXACT
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. CHC POPS
FOR FRI NGT/SAT ALREADY IN AND LOOK GOOD FOR NOW WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR EXPANSION OR SHIFTING IN COMING PACKAGES.

NEXT CHANCE WILL ARRIVE TOWARDS TUESDAY WITH A BIT STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY DROPPING IN. 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD DEEP UPPER LOW TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS
IS THE OUTLIER...CAN'T FULLY DISCOUNT GIVEN TRACK RECORD OF THIS
MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. FOR NOW CHC POPS IN PLACE LOOK
GOOD AND WILL AWAIT BETTER (HOPEFULLY) MODEL HANDLING ON FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KSBN. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SCT STORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT WARRANTING VCTS THROUGH
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT. IF TERMINALS RECEIVE RAINFALL SHALLOW GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AS CLEARING BEGINS BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE BUT CONDS IMPROVE
QUICKLY TO VFR WITH N TO NE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...NONE.

OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LUD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
504 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

INZ008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-290915-
NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-
BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-
VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...
GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
504 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010 /404 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 10O
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003>007-MIZ077>081-290915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-BERRIEN-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE
504 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010 /404 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL
LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-290915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
504 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 50 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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