Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
720 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE WHILE COLD FRONT UP ACROSS WISCONSIN
AND BACK TO SOUTHERN IOWA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TRIGGERING
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN UNSTABLE AIR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD PUSH OVERNIGHT TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY TO OHIO RIVER LATE SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF FRONT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DAYTIME SUNDAY THOUGH WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY WITH MORE
LIMITED ENERGY AVAILABLE. STRONGER STORMS EXPECTED DURING HEAT
OF DAY SUNDAY. FRONT WILL BEGIN A PUSH BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND
LIKE THIS WEEK...RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS COVERAGE AND REACH OF STORMS.

EXPECTING SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WEATHER TONIGHT RELATIVE TO LAST NIGHT
IN THAT STORM GROWTH IN NUMBERS AND STRENGTH WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
EXISTING BOUNDARIES IN NRN IL AND NRN IN THEN SINK SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. SQUALL LINE SEGMENTS ALIGNING SW-NE WILL HAVE
INCREASED POTENTIAL OF BOWING AND WIND DAMAGE AS THEY TAP INTO
STRONG WINDS ALOFT. CAPES ABOVE 4000 AGAIN. DIFFERENCE TODAY VS.
YESTERDAY ARE WIND FIELDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ADDITIONAL LIFT IN PLACE NOT PRESENT LAST
NIGHT SO STORMS SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH NUMBERS AND
STRENGTH STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS NIGHT TIME COOLING OCCURS.

EXPECT ALL COUNTIES SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED RAIN BY DAYBREAK AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES MOST LIKELY AND HEAVIEST WHERE STORMS HAVE
CHANCE TO FIRE WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY AND STRONGEST WIND FIELDS.
DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING RAINS SIMILAR TO MKE AND CHI LAST FEW
NIGHTS SINCE OUR AREA IS ON EDGE OF DEEP WESTERLIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AND HOW
MUCH MAY FALL.

ALL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRIVING WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF I-70 BY 12Z SUNDAY THOUGH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND HIGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND WIND SHIFT. END
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MORNING HOURS.

BY NOON...ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REAR
EDGE HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF I-70 AND THUS REMAINING CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER THE NOON HOUR. WITH PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF EAST FORK WHITE RIVER AS SHEAR AXIS MOVES
THROUGH FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CURRENT FORECAST AND NEAR CURRENT
GUIDANCE VALUES SO BLEND AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE BUT
ESSENTIALLY MID AND UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING FROM LOWER
70S IN THE MORNING TO UPPER 60S LATE IN THE DAY...IE VERY WARM AND
HUMID BUT NOT AS BAD AS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT FRONT STALLS PUSHES INTO KENTUCKY ALLOWING SOMEWHAT
LESS HUMID AIR TO FILTER IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. STILL CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY DROP BACK TO MID
60S FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT WEEK FEATURES A RETURN OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WEAK TROF LIFTS
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE. GFS APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AND SEEMS TO BE SLIGHT OUTLIER SO HAVE LEANED
MORE TOWARD NAM AND EURO SOLUTIONS OF SLIGHTLY SLOWER RETURN OF
SFC FRONT. ALL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TUE-THU TIME
FRAME WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA HELPING TO RAISE HEIGHTS...RETURN SW SURFACE FLOW...AND
LIFT SURFACE FRONT BACK TO CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS THE RETURN FOR
DAILY RAIN CHANCES. CANADIAN SYSTEM FORECAST BY MODELS TO SWEEP
NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS INDIANA THURSDAY AND THIS APPEARS AS BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THE WEEK.

LATEST GUIDANCE ON TEMPS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST SO
USED A BLEND RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MEANING A
RETURN TO SUMMER LIKE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. RIDGE DOES NOT REBUILD AS STRONG
AS THIS PAST WEEK SO RETURN TO MID 90S IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z ISSUANCE/...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IL SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN KS
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. BEEN
MONITORING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NORTHWEST OF
KLAF AT THIS TIME AND THESE STROMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN NOW AND 0400Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WITH
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF -TSRA. THE FRONT SETTLES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 0900Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...MCCARTHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

INZ045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-252000-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 TO 105.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AFTER DARK TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...FLOODING RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS
A THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>044-252000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAIN NEAR 100 TO 105.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 600 PM AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES
...AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS ALSO A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS
A THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

TUCEK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
747 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

INZ043-044-051-052-250045-
CLAY-PARKE-VERMILLION-VIGO-
747 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY...NORTHERN
VIGO...SOUTHERN PARKE AND SOUTHERN VERMILLION COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
EDT...

AT 744 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARSHALL ILLINOIS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SANDFORD AROUND 800 PM EDT...
TERRE HAUTE AROUND 810 PM EDT...
SEELYVILLE AROUND 825 PM EDT...
FONTANET AND ROSEDALE AROUND 830 PM EDT...
BRIDGETON AND CARBON AROUND 840 PM EDT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 8754 3979 8705 3953 8703 3937 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 248DEG 26KT 3948 8763

DRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
810 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

INZ028-029-035-250100-
FOUNTAIN-TIPPECANOE-WARREN-
810 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN...
NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND TIPPECANOE COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OXFORD...OR 13 MILES WEST
OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHADELAND AROUND 820 PM EDT...
WEST LAFAYETTE...PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND LAFAYETTE AROUND 825 PM EDT...
BATTLE GROUND AROUND 830 PM EDT...
DAYTON AROUND 835 PM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 8671 4031 8671 4028 8726 4048 8725
      4049 8711 4051 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 261DEG 34KT 4042 8707

NIELD