Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
936 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
STALL OUT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...ESPECIALLY WITH
NO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT IT...BUT MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS DATA INDICATES THAT AMPLE INSTABILITY REMAINS DESPITE THE
BEGINNING OF DIURNAL COOLING...AND A COMBINATION OF WEAK
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...WHEN COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
ISOLATED.

HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS TO LOAD IN SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA...ADJUST MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY PER LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS...AND ADD A HEAVY RAIN MENTION...AS A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL DOWNPOURS ANYWHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON PRECIP...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AND TEMPS. AS THEY CONTINUE TO BE MORE CONSISTENT..HAVE TAKEN A
BLEND OF THE SREF/ECMWF/OP GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH RESPECT TO
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND LOCATION OF THE
FRONT INTO REGION.

ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/MCS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS THROUGH THE
MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN A WEAKENING FASHION TO NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY STUNT TEMPERATURE RISES
JUST A BIT DURING THE MORNING...BUT ANTICIPATE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
HIGHLY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEPER
FORCING AND THE ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET HOWEVER WILL TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH
WILL BE GRAZED BY THE BETTER FORCING...HAVE SOME CONCERN AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN A WIDESPREAD INTENSITY LEVEL
AS IT DEVELOPS AND SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS. WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS...LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THURSDAY...
WOULD STILL APPEAR THAT BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO SEVER
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE LOW
TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM AS IT RUNS INTO FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U S. THIS WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL INDIANA AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY WITH INCREASING SIGNALS THAT A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES MAY IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS WEAK
SHORT WAVES TRAVEL IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SPECIFIC TIMING IS DIFFICULT AT
THIS POINT...SEVERAL MODELS FAVORING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW SHOULD YIELD AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.

TEMPS...DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP SUNDAY...850MB
TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AND SHIELD LOW TO MID 90S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS ENDED UP JUST A FEW DEGREES UNDER MAVMOS
GUIDANCE. EXPECTED HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY MERIT AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.
MAVMOS LOOKS TOO WARM MONDAY CONSIDERING MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH
FRONT IN THE AREA. TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 80S
NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS TWOFOLD...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. CONTINUE TO LEAN CLOSELY TO ENSEMBLE AND HPC
GUIDANCE FOR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES.

THE PRESENCE OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
THE RETROGRESSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
COMBINE TO EXPAND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS OPPOSED
TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS FAVORING THAT CENTRAL INDIANA MAY REMAIN MORE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS OPPOSED TO UNDER MORE OF THE
CORE OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS WILL REQUIRE SOME SUBTLE CHANCES TO
THE FORECAST DURING THE EXTENDED...MAINLY TO EXTEND CHANCE POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AS OPPOSED TO OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS MORE UNSETTLED AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PASS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT RETREATS NORTH SLOWLY WHILE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
EXPERIENCE HOTTER WEATHER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE. TOO
EARLY AT THIS POINT TO EMPLOY ANY MORE DETAIL IN WHAT PROMISES TO BE
A HIGHLY FLUID PATTERN.

STILL WOULD APPEAR THAT RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO MAKE MORE OF A PUSH INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT CENTERS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LEANED MUCH CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR DAYS 6-7 AS OP GFS ONCE AGAIN
TRIES TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND PUSH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND LACK THEREOF
WITH THE FRONT...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS KEEPING HOTTER TEMPS RIGHT
THOUGH SATURDAY. TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIP/CLOUDS...BUT STILL
EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAFS/...

ONGOING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES IS INITIAL CONCERN.
KBMG AND KHUF WERE STORMED ON IN LAST FEW HOURS AND APPEAR STORM
THREAT FOR THOSE LIKELY OVER NOW. BIG STORMS TO BE IN PROGRESS
BRIEFLY AT KLAF THROUGH 0015Z WHILE SMALLER STORMS BRIEFLY MOVE
THROUGH KIND BEFORE 0030Z. ONCE THIS DIES DOWN OR MOVES AWAY FROM
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL
DROP OFF BUT NOT TO NEAR CALM WHICH MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOG TO
OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING MVFR FOG FROM 10Z-
13Z BUT KBMG MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER SINCE IT RECEIVED
ABOUT THREE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE IN SOME MANNER THAT THE
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER IN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT BUILDING
MORNING CUMULUS TO BECOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TUCEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-064-065-072-181000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JENNINGS-
335 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING IS
A THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

TODAY WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED HOT...HUMID WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ051>053-060>063-067>071-181000-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-
335 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT...

HEAT AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES...

THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT LIGHTNING IS A THREAT
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE.

HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
902 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

INZ036-045-180130-
MONTGOMERY-PUTNAM-
902 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 859 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEW MARKET AROUND 920 PM EDT...
LADOGA AND ROACHDALE AROUND 930 PM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 8708 3999 8672 3979 8673 3984 8702
      3988 8702 3988 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 269DEG 12KT 3990 8700

MRD/DT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

INZ053-054-062-180300-
MONROE-MORGAN-OWEN-
1010 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONROE...
NORTHEASTERN OWEN AND SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM
EDT...

AT 1006 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPENCER...OR 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
STINESVILLE AROUND 1020 PM EDT...
PARAGON AROUND 1025 PM EDT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8685 3946 8676 3946 8669 3940 8654
      3923 8666
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 295DEG 16KT 3935 8669

DRT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

INZ045-052-180345-
CLAY-PUTNAM-
1048 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

AT 1044 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRAZIL...OR 15 MILES EAST OF TERRE HAUTE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REELSVILLE AROUND 1055 PM EDT...

TORRENTIAL RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

DRT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1051 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SWITZ CITY              39.03N 87.05W
07/17/2010                   GREENE             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE ROAD 67 FLOODED IN SPOTS BETWEEN SWITZ CITY AND
            LYONS.

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1111 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREENCASTLE             39.64N 86.84W
07/17/2010  M4.40 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DTUCEK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1121 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

INZ045-051>053-180400-
CLAY-OWEN-PUTNAM-VIGO-
1121 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR OWEN...CLAY...VIGO AND SOUTHERN
PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1118 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TERRE HAUTE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CORY AROUND 1130 PM EDT...
SALINE CITY AND CENTER POINT AROUND 1135 PM EDT...
CLAY CITY AROUND 1140 PM EDT...
BOWLING GREEN AROUND 1145 PM EDT...
PATRICKSBURG AND COAL CITY AROUND 1150 PM EDT...
FREEDOM AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 8741 3945 8665 3917 8690 3933 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 302DEG 37KT 3942 8732

DRT