Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

.UPDATE...UPDATE FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SCATTERED CUMULUS HAD DEVELOPED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECAME WELL MIXED. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 70S AS OF
19Z.

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS RUC/NAM/WRF WITH RESPECT
TO TIMING OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AT 18Z SHOWING AN ENHANCED BAND OF CUMULUS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DEVELOPED ALONG IT BETWEEN KCMI AND KDEC
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED.
WILL SEE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS INTO WESTERN COUNTIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS OVER WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ALREADY INDICATING ABOUT 1000 J/KG SBCAPES WITH AN AXIS OF
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND BRING A THIN AXIS OF
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CENTRAL INDIANA LOCATED AT REAR
OF UPPER LEVEL JET. COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGESTS
FURTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING PLENTY
OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND WBZEROS OF 8KFT AT A FAVORABLE
LEVEL. PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO THE
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT EAST WITH THE BOUNDARY...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 01-06Z.  SKIES WILL THEN
CLEAR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING ALOFT REESTABLISHING. WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING...EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY.

TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SHOULD
COOL OFF NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY...
WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.
TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE FIRST LOW WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER ON THURSDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS GFS/GEM/EURO WERE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCY
IN THE TRACK OF THE SECOND LOW...BUT THEY HAVE SINCE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...ALL SHOWING THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER INDIANA.
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET AND 50KT LOW LEVEL JET.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...AND THE JETS WILL NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR HIGHS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...THEY WILL PLUMMET ON
SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FROM THAT POINT ON. AS FAR AS
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ON THE NIGHTS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE. BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD
BACK INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS AHEAD
OF THIS LINE. COVERAGE A LITTLE MORE SPARSE ACROSS ILLINOIS PORTION
OF LINE...BUT THINK SOME OF THIS WILL FILL IN GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.
APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE OVER IN THE KLAF AREA BY ISSUANCE
TIME...BUT FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT/AROUND THE
OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL ABOUT 040300Z-040400Z. BRIEF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS 25-35KTS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. GIVEN THE
RATHER HIGH LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS AND LIMITED MOISTURE...ANY
IFR SHOULD BE BRIEF AND RESTRICTED TO THE HEAVIER CELLS.

AT THIS POINT...DOESN/T LOOK LIKE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED OVERNIGHT...SO WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
402 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>037-043>046-051>053-060-042015-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-
402 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THIS
EVENING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ061-067>072-042015-
GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
402 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND LOWLAND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE EAST FORK WHITE...MUSCATATUCK...AND WHITE RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THIS
EVENING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH RIVER LEVELS AND LOWLAND FLOODING MAY PERSIST INTO MID WEEK
ALONG THE EAST FORK WHITE...MUSCATATUCK...AND WHITE RIVERS. SEE
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ038>042-047>049-054>057-062>065-042015-
TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-
402 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH THIS
EVENING HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

TDUD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
639 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             NOBLESVILLE             40.06N 86.03W
05/03/2010  M0.25 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ABAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
641 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

INZ040-047>049-054>057-032330-
HANCOCK-HENRY-JOHNSON-MADISON-MARION-MORGAN-RUSH-SHELBY-
641 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORGAN...JOHNSON...
NORTHERN SHELBY...NORTHERN RUSH...SOUTHERN MARION...HANCOCK...HENRY
AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MUNCIE...THROUGH THE INDIANAPOLIS METRO AREA TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARTINSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF
STORMS...AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS. A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE INDIANAPOLIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 639 PM.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT SUMMIT...SUMMIT LAKE STATE PARK...WAVERLY...WILKINSON...SPRING
LAKE...SHIRLEY...NEW PALESTINE...MARTINSVILLE...KENNARD...
GREENWOOD...GREENFIELD AND CADIZ AROUND 645 PM EDT...
MOORELAND AND WHITELAND AROUND 650 PM EDT...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3963 8532 3934 8626 3952 8663 3964 8640
      3963 8634 3967 8633 4008 8550 4008 8523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 318DEG 33KT 4003 8545 3950 8646

RYAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
716 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

INZ042-032345-
RANDOLPH-
716 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINCHESTER...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DUNKIRK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SARATOGA AROUND 725 PM EDT...
UNION CITY AROUND 730 PM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4002 8482 4002 8519 4033 8492 4032 8481
      4032 8480 4004 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 262DEG 38KT 4015 8502

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
759 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LYNN                    40.05N 84.94W
05/03/2010                   RANDOLPH           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN LYNN.

&&

MKOCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
802 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

INZ035-036-043-044-040045-
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-PARKE-VERMILLION-
802 PM EDT MON MAY 3 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PARKE...CENTRAL
VERMILLION...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN FOUNTAIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM EDT/745 PM CDT/...

AT 657 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHRISMAN...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF PARIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAYUGA AND MONTEZUMA AROUND 815 PM EDT...
NEWPORT AROUND 820 PM EDT...
LODI AROUND 825 PM EDT...
BLOOMINGDALE AROUND 830 PM EDT...
KINGMAN AND TURKEY RUN STATE PARK AROUND 835 PM EDT...
YEDDO AROUND 840 PM EDT...
WALLACE...SHADES STATE PARK AND ALAMO AROUND 845 PM EDT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3994 8754 4015 8710 3993 8694 3972 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 242DEG 28KT 3982 8755

KOCH

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