Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
551 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS MORNING BEFORE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THESE FEATURES. AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SPREADING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING ON TO THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON QPF AND FLOOD POTENTIAL. CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT CAUSING IT TO
STALL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA COULD
RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAX OUT IN THE MORNING AND DROP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. USED THE 3 HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM THE SREFS AS
THESE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BEST.

OF NOTE...SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN THE NORTHWEST
SO INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THAT AFTER 21Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE DEVIL IS IN
THE DETAILS AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE IS CONCERNED. USED A BLEND
WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE SREFS HOPING THAT THE SPC ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES WOULD HELP CLARIFY THE POTENTIAL FOR DIFFERENT PRECIP
TYPES. NAM MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA MORE QUICKLY THAN
THE GFS AND SREFS AND THUS DISCOUNTED IT/S LOWER POPS. SREF/GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TOO WARM FOR FREEZING RAIN UNTIL AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE PROFILE. WHILE SREF SOUNDINGS HINT AT
POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR SO OF SLEET AT CHANGEOVER...THE CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES SHOWN IN THE SPC SREF GRAPHICS DO NOT EVEN REACH 10
PERCENT AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. BRING SNOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL...AND RAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST INITIALLY AND MOVE THIS PATTERN SOUTHEAST. KEEP A LOW
CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM 6-9Z IN KEEPING WITH THE GFS AND THIS
IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND IS TOO WARM. HOWEVER WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING AFTER THE RAIN AND WET SNOW COULD SEE FREEZING
OF WHATEVER WATER IS LEFT ON THE GROUND AND ON THE ROADS AND THUS
SLICK SPOTS FOR TRAVEL. FOR LOWS TONIGHT LIKED THE SREFS...AFTER
THAT FOR TEMPS USED A MODEL CONSENSUS AS THERE WASN/T MUCH
VARIABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ZONAL SUNDAY...BUT BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S.  ALL MODELS POINT TO A WET PERIOD MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS SOME MODELS MOVE A DRY SLOT ACROSS OUR
REGION.  FOR NOW WILL DEFER WITH HPC AND CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY.  BY WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAFS/...

BAD FLYING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
SITES. CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN LIFR AND VFR BUT WILL PLAY
THE PESSIMIST ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS/ INITIALLY AND AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
AFTER FROPA AS WELL. KLAF IS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLEET BUT
EVEN THAT ISN/T VERY LIKELY SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. WILL
CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIX TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ030-031-035>049-051>057-
060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP/JH
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
457 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-261000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
457 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. ROADWAYS MAY DEVELOP SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BELOW FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
541 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EDWARDSPORT             38.81N 87.25W
11/25/2010                   KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GARAGE BLOWN DOWN, TREES DOWN

&&

CP