Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR MOLINE WITH WARM AND HUMID SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ARE SETTING THE STAGE
FOR AN AFTERNOON AND AN EVENING ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MORNING CLOUD HAS SLOWED WARMING BUT EVENTUAL MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY REACHING MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 70S
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL WHILE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPS
SPIN UP SUPERCELLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/...
LOW STRATUS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURE RISES WERE BEING TEMPERED A BIT BY THE
CLOUDS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 70S AT 15Z.

FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION LATER TODAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAPID
REFRESH/RUC COMBO WITH RESPECT TO MAIN FEATURES FOR THE NEAR TERM.

ALL SIGNS ARE CERTAINLY POINTING TO MOTHER NATURE PROVIDING A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HERE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. DO ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO EVOLVE AT A SLOWER PACE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN IT DID ON MONDAY AND HAVE A FEW REASONS FOR THIS
THINKING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE HAMPERING HEATING AND MESOANALYSIS
INDICATING THAT REGION IS FIGHTING INHIBITION IN THE LOW LEVELS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE. CLOSER ANALYSIS OF SOUNDING DATA
ALSO PROVIDING SOME INTERESTING CLUES AS TO HOW THINGS MAY EVOLVE
LATER ON. LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT ABOVE
THE INVERSION. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS SHOWING A BROADER AREA OF
DRYING AND POSSIBLY A HINT OF SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS.
INITIALLY...THIS IS KEEPING IT QUIET OVER THE REGION.

HOWEVER...AS HEATING COMMENCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES WARM...INHIBITION WILL BE SLOWLY EATEN AWAY WITH
INCREASING CAPES ABOVE THE INVERSION EVENTUALLY BEING REALIZED
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SBCAPES WILL LIKELY PLATEAU NEAR
3000-4000 J/KG ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BOUNDARIES WILL THEN COME INTO PLAY AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION...INCLUDING THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA... AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE INFLUENCING THE CONVECTION
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME...SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...
ALLOWING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR IN THE MID 70S TO RETURN.

INITIAL COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL IMPACT MANY OF OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANTICIPATE THE MAIN
CONVECTION TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG SHORT
WAVE AXIS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS BY MID
AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST AND INTENSIFYING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME AFTER 22-23Z. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS ONCE
AGAIN IN PLACE AND IS THE MAIN CONCERN AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A DERECHO THIS EVENING.
ALSO FEEL A SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN HERE WOULD BE IF SUPERCELLS CAN GET
ORGANIZED WITHIN A WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FINALLY...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. RAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH NOW 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVING FALLEN ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SINCE FRIDAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
RUNNING HIGH AND GROUND IS WATERLOGGED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RECOVERING
TO 2 TO 2.25 INCHES THIS EVENING...LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THEREFORE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...FEW CHANGES AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL AGAIN CLIMB FROM THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY/...
ONCE SEVERE CONVECTION EXITS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THUS CONFIDENCE PRETTY
HIGH THAT RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RETURNING TO MID 60S
OR LOWER. WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCES FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS.
A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS MINS ABOVE GUIDANCES GIVEN SATURATED GROUND
LIKELY LEADING TO DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AND VERY
HEAVY DEWS FOR COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST ISSUE HERE IS RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL. ALL MODELS AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DROPPING NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROUGH SOUTHEAST INTO
ROCKIES THEN LIFTING IT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
RESULTS IN FURTHER BUILDING OF UPPER RIDGE BACK OVER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND RETURN OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70. RESULTING HEAT INDICES IN MID TO UPPER 90S...JUST
BELOW HEAT CRITERIA. AS FOR THUNDER THREAT...ALL MODELS DRAG A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK IMPULSES
FLATTENING FLOW TO MORE WESTERLY. RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS IT
APPEARS SURFACE BOUNDARY TO BE FURTHER NORTH AND GREATER THREAT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO ADD OR
MAINTAIN CHANCE THREAT CURRENTLY IN FORECAST. HAVE ADDED THREAT
INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF MODELS DROPPING THAT BOUNDARY CLOSE TO
OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS AGREES WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND HPC.
NOT CERTAIN CURRENT DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
HOLD OUT AS WEAK WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW IN BASE OF WESTERLIES MAY
STILL BE A THREAT. LATER FORECASTS MAY ADJUST THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160000Z TAFS/...
ABUNDANT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN A LINE ACROSS THE IL/IN
BORDER THIS EVENING...IN ADDITION TO A FEW ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
THROUGH NOW UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING...WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE
TAFS WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT
OF THE SW...POSSIBLY UPWARD FOR 50-60KT IN ANY OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION ESTABLISHES. FOG
MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MIDDAY (WED) AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
ESTABLISHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...SMF
MESOSCALE...CROSBIE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-161745-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND LINE OF STORMS SWEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MANY AREA
RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

TUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
739 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S BROWNSBURG          39.81N 86.39W
06/15/2010  E50 MPH          HENDRICKS          IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DTUCEK

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