River Flood Warning 78, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

AT 06Z A SURFACE LOW WAS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM ILLINOIS SOUTH TO THE SURFACE LOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CLOSER TO
REALITY THIS RUN...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.

SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO OUR AREA BY THE START OF THE TODAY
PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 12Z WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WENT CATEGORICAL THERE...WITH JUST CHANCE POPS AFTER 12Z
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. WILL KEEP WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. AT THE MOMENT
AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST PARAMETERS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. AREA IS STILL IN A SPC
SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...WENT COOLER THAN MAV
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

CONTINUED WITH THE MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOCUS IN
SHORT TERM IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MAV LOOKS TOO COOL FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...SO WENT A LITTLE
WARMER THAN MAV.

ON MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER
WILL BE THE RULE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME FINDS THE FORECAST AREA IN A
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOCUSED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CONTINUED TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AS IT HAS
DISPLAYED GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
WERE NOTICED IN THE PLACEMENT AND HANDLING/EVOLUTION OF THE EXISTING
UPPER LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS BECAME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN REGARDS TO NOT ONLY THIS INITIAL
WAVE...BUT ALSO SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.

THIS RAIN THREAT ARRIVES VIA A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM
THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIE JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH NOT
AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
OHIO VALLEY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED INITIALLY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RELATIVELY SPEAKING...MORE
ROBUST PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND CAUSES A SURFACE LOW TO
RIDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHEAST INDIANA BY 00Z
SATURDAY...THUS ENDING OUR THREAT FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 021200Z TAF ISSUANCE.

SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL PUS NORTHEAST
TO NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR CEILINGS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE MAY PUSH ACROSS THE HUF AND LAF
TERMINALS.  COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MVFR CEILING WILL THEN BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AS
THE LOW DEPARTS AND TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT
TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS
WILL WE NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR BR ON MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR INZ051>057-060>065-
067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

INZ051>055-060>063-067>070-031000-
VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-KNOX-
DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ031-037>041-044>048-031000-
HOWARD-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-PARKE-PUTNAM-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO KOKOMO LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ056-057-064-065-071-072-031000-
SHELBY-RUSH-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

HEAVY RAIN LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONG STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ042-049-031000-
RANDOLPH-HENRY-
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO KOKOMO LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>030-035-036-043-031000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION-
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A TERRE
HAUTE TO KOKOMO LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH