Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Indianapolis, IN

895 
WWUS83 KIND 152157
RFWIND

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
557 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

INZ060-061-067>072-152300-
/O.EXP.KIND.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-101015T2200Z/
SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
557 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING FIRE WEATHER ZONES...
IN INDIANA...60...61...67...68...69...70...71...72

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LOWERING
THE FIRE THREAT

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPORARILY STALLING
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE WAVE PUSHES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ANALYSIS AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IR SAT THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA...WITH THE EASTERN COUNTIES THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT BY LATER
THIS MORNING.

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY IS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...AS WELL
AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. (SEE FIRE WX DISC BELOW.) A RELATIVELY
STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS GRADIENT THE PRODUCT OF
BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND THE
APPROACHING BUILDING RIDGE. CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
STRONG NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY AS SUSTAINED NW WINDS
PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...SO USED A
BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES. MODEL DATA IS
IN AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH SAT/SUN REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...AROUND
25% ON SAT AND AROUND 30% FOR SUNDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE A
CONCERN...THESE RH'S COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE
WX CONCERNS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. FLATTING OF THE RIDGE MID-WEEKEND AS A WEAK AND DRY COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR
TEMPERATURE PROFILES BOTH DAYS...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LOW 70S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
THIS IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL.

.&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...

ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE RATHER ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
AMPLIFY AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO APPEARS THE SUB TROPICAL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT THE EFFECTS OF
THIS JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE WAVE. ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/12Z TAFS/...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SURFACE GUSTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL START THE TAFS WITH GUSTS AT IND/HUF...WHERE THEY
ARE ONGOING. AT LAF/BMG...GUSTS EITHER NEVER OCCURRED OR HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION
AT THESE SITES UNTIL STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN LATER THIS
MORNING.

ONLY A FEW-SCT VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED TODAY. WIND GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 18-22KT RANGE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SUBSIDING
NEAR SUNSET IN TYPICAL FASHION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MANY
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVED A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODERATE WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
HAVE ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIED OUT THE 10 HR FUEL MOISTURES. THESE
DRY FUELS COMBINED WITH BORDERLINE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM
28 TO 34%...AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL PRODUCE AN ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...AS FLOW TURNS BACK TO SOUTHWEST EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO DROP EVEN LOWER THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TO AROUND
25% UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE MUCH LOWER
THAN FRIDAY...GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.
NO GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS/SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...NIELD
FIRE...SMF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-160730-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
322 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 34 PERCENT...WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FIRE DANGER RELATED
INCIDENTS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

SMFLECHT