Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
148 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 148 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TODAY TRENDING TOWARD QUICKLY
REBUILDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN
WAKE OF SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ILLINOIS. THE STRENGTH OF
THE WAVE IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SYSTEMS THAT HAVE BEEN
TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HI-RES WRF MODELS SUCH
AS OU/CAPS AND HRR ARE INDICATING MORE SHEAR THAN HAS BEEN
RESIDENT OVER THE REGION AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX COMES AROUND WAVE.
THIS ADDED INGREDIENT SHOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH THIS ROUND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH GIVEN THAT THERE IS A BIT MORE
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO THE SHEAR THIS TIME.

RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A FACTOR WITH HIGH
EFFICIENCY RAIN PRODUCERS. GIVEN PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER PAST TWO DAYS
IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES AND WILL
KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE. IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY IF THE EXPECTED SPEED OF PRECIP CESSATION OCCURS.

ASSUMING THAT THE STORMS DO ORGANIZE AS EXPECTED...THE PRECIP
SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND BRING IN A VERY BRIEF
RESPITE TO THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE IN WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...850 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO 20C BY THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH THE REBUILDING RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS BY
THURSDAY. PREVIOUS PACKAGES SUGGESTED THAT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
GIVEN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS...DOUBT FRONT WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
INTO THE RIDGE. IMPLICATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MUGGY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S AND INCREASING DEW POINTS. SLIGHTLY BEETER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT TRIES TO MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME POSSIBLE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE.

BARKER
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

CLEARING HAS LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF MCS OVER
MISSOURI. STORMY AFTERNOON ON TAP WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES. PRECIP SHOULD
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLIER THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST.

BARKER
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ044>046-054>057-
061>063.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1147 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ILZ027>031-037-038-042-043-048-051>053-161700-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1147 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-161700-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
1147 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM
HAVANA...AND ALSO ALONG THE SPOON RIVER NEAR LONDON MILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-161700-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
1147 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AS THEY
DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY...AS MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EXPECT FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SANGAMON RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ066>068-071>073-161700-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1147 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GEELHART

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
150 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ILZ063-067-068-072-151945-
CLARK-CRAWFORD-JASPER-RICHLAND-
150 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CRAWFORD...NORTHERN RICHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST LIBERTY...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF NEWTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWTON...
  STE. MARIE...
  WILLOW HILL...
  HARDINVILLE...
  OBLONG...
  EATON...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...HUNT CITY AND STOY.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3877 8813 3891 8825 3904 8811 3921 8760
      3919 8759 3915 8766 3912 8766 3911 8764
      3909 8763 3906 8758 3903 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 225DEG 22KT 3888 8812

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
220 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             YALE                    39.12N 88.02W
06/15/2010  M1.25 INCH       JASPER             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JRP