Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

PROBLEM OF DAY IS SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW...TROUGH
IN WEST PLAINS. SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
SECOND SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE CHANNEL DATA SHOWS UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM TX INTO
MO...IL...AND WI. AIRMASS UPSTABLE AHEAD OF PLUME OVER EASTERN MO
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL. SHEAR IS NOT REAL GREAT BUT
INSTABILITY IN THE 3000 TO 3500 ML CAPE VALUE. EXPECT STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN UNSTABLE AIR.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN ROCKIES BEGINS TO SWING OUT ON
TUESDAY...AGAIN EXPECT STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF CWA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE EUR THE CHOICE. NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A
CHANCE OF STORMS. INTO THE WEEKEND...STILL TO EARLY TO ADD CHANCE
OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF REGION.

GOETSCH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST TO A NEAR DNV-MTO-3LF LINE WITH
GENERALLY EAST WINDS AND LOW TO MID CLOUDS NORTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION AND AM DOWNPLAYING
CONVECTION THE FURTHER A TERMINAL SITE IS FROM THE BOUNDARY. HAVE
ADJUSTED CIGS AND WINDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS LATE TONIGHT THOUGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

BARKER
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

ILZ028>031-037-038-042-048-051-152015-
LOGAN-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-SANGAMON-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
309 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING,

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
POTENTIAL THREAT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ043-045-046-052>057-061>063-066>068-073-152015-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
309 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ILZ027-036-040-041-047-049-050-152015-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
309 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING,

THERE WILL BE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS...
SPOON...AND SANGAMON RIVERS THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO
CAUSE FLOODING OF OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS EARLY THIS WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
POTENTIAL THREAT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044-152015-
PIATT-
309 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SANGAMON
RIVER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS EARLY THIS WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ILZ071-072-152015-
CLAY-RICHLAND-
309 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AS A STATIONARY
FRONT LINGERS ACROSS ILLINOIS.THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE WABASH
RIVER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF
OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS EARLY THIS WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
502 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND GST     SIDELL                  39.91N 87.82W
06/14/2010  U65 MPH          VERMILION          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
503 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW CHAMPAIGN         40.10N 88.30W
06/14/2010  M0.91 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL TOTAL IN 15 MINUTES.

0340 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BETHANY                 39.64N 88.74W
06/14/2010  M1.00 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL TOTAL IN 25 MINUTES. REPORTED BY WAND TV.

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
06/14/2010                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER AT INTERSECTION OF
            SPRINGFIELD AND 6TH STREETS.

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
06/14/2010                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER OVER THE INTERSECTION OF
            SPRINGFIELD AND 6TH STREET.

0452 PM     TSTM WND GST     SIDELL                  39.91N 87.82W
06/14/2010  U65.00 MPH       VERMILION          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
504 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     TSTM WND GST     FLORA                   38.67N 88.48W
06/14/2010  E60 MPH          CLAY               IL   PUBLIC

&&

JRP

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