Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN IOWA CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND WILL
AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
930 PM AND 1030 PM. ADDITIONALLY...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WAS
TRACKING ESE ACRS CNTRL IOWA AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT A GOOD PART
OF WESTERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST THIS SECOND QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WL MAINTAIN ITSELF
INTO WRN IL BEFORE WEAKENING SOME AS IT PUSHES EAST OF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONES
TO REFLECT THIS AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER SOUTH IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE THRU LATE THIS EVENING. MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ESP NORTH OF
A SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE LINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1148 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER IA TO MOVE ESE INTO IL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. IFR WITH GUSTS 45 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF STORM COMPLEX. RAIN
BEHIND THE LINE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IFR CONDITIONS. WILL GO WITH
TAFS WITH THIS TREND.

GOETSCH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST-EAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN MCS TONIGHT...AND 2 COLD FRONTS BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.

THEN A PATTERN CHANGE INTO MORE NW FLOW NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL IL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS C IL HAS NOT MODIFIED
APPRECIABLY YET...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...NEARLY UNCAPPED AND
MOIST AIRMASS RESPONDS TO THE SUNS HEATING. VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE CLOUDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS NOT BEEN TOO DEEP...WITH
JUST ONE FAST-MOVING SHOWER INDICATED ON RADAR JUST WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE BETWEEN 1-130 PM.

WILL STICK WITH DRY EVENING FORECAST IN ALL BUT THE FAR NW
ZONES...WHERE SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DUE TO
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA.

THE BIG SHOW TONIGHT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF AN MCS THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN E NEB AND W IA...THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD IN
THE MEAN FLOW OF THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. IF THE ORIGINATION ZONE
IS CORRECT...CORFIDI VECTORS PUT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM INTO N IL
LATER TONIGHT. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
IS A LACK OF AN EXISTING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE MCS TO
FOCUS ON. THEREFORE...THE TRACK WHILE BE MORE CLOSELY TIED WITH
THE AXIS OF MAX INSTABILITY AND THE AXIS AND POSITION OF THE
STRENGTHENING LLJ. A FEW 4KM MESO-SCALE MODELS POINT TOWARD THE
A FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE BOWING STRUCTURE...WITH THE SLOWER
MOVING HEAVY RAIN BAND OF THE MCS DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
LATER TONIGHT. CORFIDI VECTORS ALSO POINT TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THAT SOUTHERN BACK-BUILDING PORTION OF THE MCS...WHICH IS
TYPICAL OF A CLASSIC MCS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT BAND MAY QUICKLY REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. MANY AREAS IN
OUR N CWA JUST PICKED UP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY...SO
THE GROUND MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH IN THOSE AREAS. WE WILL BE
CONTINUING WITH AN AREAL FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
OUR CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BEGINNING OF HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS PSBL WED NIGHT/THUR.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS NORTH AND WEST OF PEORIA...WITH
CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THERE TO SPRINGFIELD AND CHAMPAIGN.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING BUT
DIMINISHING IN THE NORTHERN CWA. THE COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM THE
MCS WILL PROGRESS SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. HOW FAR IT GETS WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA. WE EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS C IL. OUR ENTIRE
CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC...WHICH COULD BE
ADJUSTED BASED ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE OUTFLOW PROGRESSES.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS A WAVE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI AND LIFT ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS C IL. THE PATH OF THE LOW WILL PUT MORE STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN IN THE N HALF OF OUR CWA WED NIGHT. WE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA AT SOME POINT WED NIGHT.

BY THUR MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE FORWARD
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STORMS COMING TO AN END FROM NW TO
SE. A FEW STORMS MY LINGER SE OF I-70 THUR EVE...BUT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THAT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD
FRONT...BUT WARMER AIR AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE ACRS THE REGION. STORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF IL BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT COLD
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOPEFULLY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040-041.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
108 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 S TRIVOLI             40.65N 89.88W
06/02/2010  M70 MPH          PEORIA             IL   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

25

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