Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Lincoln, IL

521 
WWUS53 KILX 050120
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
820 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

ILC107-125-129-050129-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-100405T0145Z/
MENARD IL-LOGAN IL-MASON IL-
820 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MASON...WEST CENTRAL
LOGAN AND NORTHERN MENARD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

LAT...LON 4033 8995 4026 8994 4025 8966 4025 8939
      4000 8952 4016 9020 4034 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 288DEG 31KT 4025 8964 4011 8977
WIND...HAIL <58MPH <.50IN

$$

HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
635 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 122 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ABOUT 6 TO 8 HOURS AHEAD OF ANY
MODEL SOLUTION...FORMED ACRS NW MO ALONG THE 850 MB MOISTURE AND
THERMAL AXIS...AND CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY EWD ACRS WEST CENTRAL
IL. MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT STILL ACRS CNTRL IOWA EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACRS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHED INTO SE IL THANKS IN LARGE PART TO THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TONIGHT...AND WILL START HEADING BACK INTO
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY.

IT APPEARS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE HANDLING THE FRONTAL FEATURES
ABOUT THE SAME THRU MONDAY AFTN...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAN IT WAS IN PRIOR RUNS...RESULTING IN
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. DEEP SHEAR VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. LATEST 4KM ARW SUGGESTS ONCE THE BAND BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPS A COLD POOL...IT
WL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST AND SOUTH ACRS THE AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS ENHANCING THE WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. MODELS
NOTORIOUSLY SLOW WITH THESE LINEAR TYPE STORMS SO IT APPEARS THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 09Z. WL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
THIS EVENING ACRS THE NW HALF AND OVER THE SE LATE THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF I-70 BY MORNING WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A NORTHWARD SURGE IN THE BNDRY BY AFTN.
WL CARRY PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS WITH A SLOWER/MORE CONSERVATIVE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. WITH
THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH TMRW NIGHT...THE HIGH CHANCE POPS WL THIS TIME
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE AIR MASS WILL BE CAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT SIG SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE
PLAINS AT THIS TIME WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS THRU WRN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR/CAPPED ATMOS...FEEL THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE FRONT SURGES EWD LATE...THE CONVECTION CHANCES WL START TO
INCREASE TO OUR WEST AND WL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWS DOWN DURING THE DAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES WL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT WED NIGHT...ESP ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE BNDRY EDGES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND AMPLITUDE
WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER WAVE MIDWEEK. A SECONDARY WAVE ON THE FRONT
WL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING ACRS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF DEEPENING IN THE UPPER
LOW ACRS THE LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING IN A FAIRLY COOL
AIR MASS IF THAT VERIFIES. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF FROM MAKING ANY SIG
CHANGES TO THE GOING EFP AT THIS POINT. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST
TO EAST ON THU AND FORECAST WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 635 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

A PERIOD OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45KTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WEST LATE THIS
EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TAPER OFF. THEN...MOSTLY
QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDAY MONDAY ON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TO0 SMALL TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
354 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-
MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
354 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LATER AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS IT RETURNS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 6 PM.

ILZ036-040-041-047>050-051100-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
354 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LATER AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.

THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE IN FLOOD FROM HAVANA TO POINTS
DOWNSTREAM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS IT RETURNS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM.

ILZ027>031-037-051100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
354 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS LATER AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
TRANSITION BACK TO A COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS IT RETURNS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM.

HJS

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...FORECASTS...AND WARNINGS.