Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
139 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 139 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MINI VORT-MAX HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND HELPED SPARK
CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM PITTSFIELD TO NORTH OF
CHAMPAIGN. COLD POOL ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN FAVORABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1K J/KG.
EXPECT HAIL TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD...WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE DRY AIR EVIDENT IN THE 18Z LINCOLN SPECIAL SOUNDING. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT VICINITY OF VORT
MAX AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z...AND INTO INDIANA BY
06Z. WILL THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME EVENING POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY. NOT ALOT OF COLD AIR
WITH THE FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNNOON. GFS/NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE
PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ANYTHING LINGERING WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS STILL EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN END OF THE
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...SPREADING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE
AREA. WILL BEGIN INCREASING POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THIS SCENERIO IN MIND.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
DECENT CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST STAYING
IN THE 60S AS THE SOUTHEAST WARMS TO AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP DEVELOP
SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. WILL
INDICATE SOME HEALTHY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
BOOSTED UP IF LONGER RANGE MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS
IS A FASTER/WEAKER OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE MORE CONSISTENT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE VERSIONS OF THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS
BEGINNING TO TREND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK QUITE COOL AS COLD AIR COMES SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE 60S...WHILE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S APPEAR POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY AND INTO THE EAST MONDAY...RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE MAY NOT RETURN THAT QUICKLY. FOR NOW WILL
PUT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS IS LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

04
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 AM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS WITH A COLD FRONT NEAR THE IL RIVER
PRESSING INTO SE IL EARLY THIS EVENING AND A SHORT WAVE OVER NE MO
MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IF A THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER A TAF SITE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF
1016 MB OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO
VALLEYS TUE. BREEZY W/SW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTEROON WILL BECOME LIGHT SW AFTER SUNSET AND PICK UP TO 10-15
KTS FROM 15Z-18Z (10 AM TO 1 PM) TUE.

HUETTL
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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