Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
232 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 230 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY INVOLVE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
MORNING...AND STRONG WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

LONG ADVERTISED MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ON
SCHEDULE. LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWING 976 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA AND WESTERN MISSOURI. DESPITE THE DISTANCE FROM THE LOW...
PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD HAVE ESTABLISHED OCTOBER LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE RECORDS. PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB IN THE LAST
3 HOURS HAVE BEEN NOTED WEST OF I-55...WHICH HAS HELPED WINDS
ALREADY GUST FROM 40-45 MPH IN A FEW AREAS. ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. SPECIAL 06Z ILX SOUNDING
AND WINCHESTER PROFILER SHOWING 40-45 KNOTS JUST OFF THE DECK AND
60-65 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CORE OF UPPER JET SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH 120+ KNOT WINDS...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

SOME INITIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS JUST WEST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER AT 2 AM...WITH MAIN SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR QUINCY SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS...WHICH SHOULD EXIT
THE CWA BY AROUND 11 AM.

00Z MODELS INDICATE THE CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN ANOTHER 15 MB BY
LATE EVENING...ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALONG WITH 50-60 KNOTS OF WIND MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT...INDICATES THAT WE MAY BE CLOSE TO WIND
WARNING CRITERIA TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA.
FEEL THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WARNING FROM GALESBURG TO
PARIS NORTHWARD...AND WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH WHILE
KEEPING THE ADVISORY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. AFTER A LULL
OVERNIGHT...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP MIX SIMILAR
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR ANOTHER MODEL
CYCLE...BUT ADVISORIES AT A MINIMUM WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

DUE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE
TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1105 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIMING OF SQUALL LINE
INTO OUR TAF SITES AND STRONG GRADIENT WINDS THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH ACRS
WRN IA LATE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WITH
THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH IN AFTER 07Z
ACRS OUR WEST AND APPRCHG OUR EASTERN AREAS BY DAWN TUESDAY.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING
AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE STORY OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SFC WIND GUSTS APPRCHG 60 MPH WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SFC WERE 50-60 KTS ALREADY THIS EVENING AND ANY ORGANIZED
CELL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN GUSTY WINDS. SFC WIND
GUSTS HAVE HELD UP THIS EVENING AND WITH THE CONVECTION INCRG TO
OUR WEST WILL TAKE OUT THE LLWS. EXPECT SFC WIND GUSTS TO BE UP
TO 40 MPH IN A FEW AREAS...OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.

THE SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL RACE TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY NO LATER THAN 15Z TUESDAY...WITH STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
PREVAILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD
LIFT OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BY LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN. SFC WINDS
TNT WL CONTINUE FROM A SSE (150-180 DEGREES) DIRECTION...AND THEN
VEER MORE INTO A SSW (210-240) DIRECTION TUE MRNG WITH A FEW GUSTS
APPRCHG 45 KTS...ESP ACRS THE NORTH.

SMITH

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ036-040>042-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-043>046-055-057.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
832 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>054-061-261100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
832 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AS FAR EAST AS THE I-57 CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG AND FAST MOVING COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...
MAINLY FROM FROM HIGHWAY 51 EAST...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO INDIANA BY LATE MORNING. THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL STILL BE
AT RISK OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM.

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-261100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-VERMILION-
832 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...FROM I-57 EASTWARD.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. A
LINE OF STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE INDIANA BORDER. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL
RACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. AFTER A LULL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY BETWEEN
5 AM AND 10 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

GEELHART